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Thursday, May 31, 2018

Daily update 5/31

Tariffs are on again (at least for the moment).

SPX closed back below the 20 and 100 SMAs again.  Breadth was -63%.  New highs contracted to 95.  New lows increased to 67.  I think investors were discerning between winners and losers on the tariffs rather then selling everything.  It still put a damper on things.

The futures tested yesterday's low and bounced back.  That would be generally bullish in an uptrend, but does not work as good in a consolidation.  The bulls definitely need to do some work tomorrow.  Further downside would probably kill the current bounce.

The red count increased a bit, but remains below 50.  The intermediate indicator appears to be rolling over.  That is not particularly good.

The daily chart is starting to look like a slow roll over top.  Despite small caps doing well the big cap stocks are languishing.  Normal bull market corrections tend to have the indexes topping in close proximity to each other.  In this case SPX topped in Jan., COMPX in March, and maybe R2000 here in May.  The indexes topped at different times in 2015 and it was a year before SPX made a new high.  This is really starting to look like another prolonged correction or bear market starting.  Something sure seems to be bothering the market.


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