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Monday, May 14, 2018

Daily update 5/14 SPY option data

SPX ran into some resistance.

SPX ran into sellers at the 3/19 high and the upper Keltner 50 channel line.  It closed 12 points off the high.  Breadth was -54%.  New highs were up a bit to 119, but well less then then 144 we had on 5/9.  New lows increased a bit to 32. 

The futures pulled back from their high today, but remain above the upper channel line.  Closing back inside that line should signal the current thrust has ended and the market is in consolidation mode.

The green count turned down, but remains above 50.  The intermediate indicator continues to increase.  This is good as long as the current rally does not fail. 

The latest look at the SPY option data shows a lot of calls at these levels and above.  The 275, 279, and 280 levels really stand out.  They can be stiff resistance or acceleration points if the bulls push through them.  Notable put support comes in at 265. 

R2000 was down -.4% today which matches up with the negative breadth.  It fell about 1 point short of making a new high before the selling started.  It is the only major index that close to its high.  It has been leading this bounce and it will be important to see how it handles this test of the high.  If things do not go well it could cause some selling in the bigger cap indexes.  If it breaks out and stays there it could bode well for the other indexes.  Since SPX touched its upper channel line and met some resistance a pullback here would be normal.  There are a lot of MAs that could catch a pullback.  There is also the matter of the downtrend line.  A pullback to kiss that line good bye and strong bounce could be very bullish.  Falling back below that line could be a problem. 


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