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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Daily update 3/20

SPY had a doji day. 

The bulls and bears fought to a standstill.  The breadth was -54%.  New highs were 44.  New lows increased a bit more to 148.  It looked more like a pause day on the way to lower prices rather then the beginning of a bottom.  The bulls need to get going if we are headed higher.

The futures were in a fairly narrow range overnight.  The upside never got going after a small gap up.  Price is stuck between the 200 SMA and 200 EMA. 

The red count slipped back under 50.  The more troubling thing for bulls is the intermediate indicator may have rolled over after hitting 50.  That indicator must get across 50 to signal the correction is coming to an end.

The bulls were not very excited today.  It looked like nothing more then the FED day drift. I heard Pisani talking about it on CNBC again.  This has been widely known for a long time and yet it continues to happen.  That is very odd for markets.  Tomorrow will be interesting to see what happens after the announcement.  This will be Powell's first meeting.  I am sure the FED watchers will be hanging on every word.  I have no idea what to expect.  How will the market react to a rate hike without Yellen reassuring us all she is nothing but a dove at heart?  Will the FED hint at a fourth hike this year instead of three?  I have heard a lot of people talking about that.  Many seem to worry about a fourth hike.  So we will see what happens and reconvene after the dust settles tomorrow.


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