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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Daily update 3/14

Another gap up sold.


SPX traded slightly below the 50 SMA, but settled slightly above it.  The downtrend line is also in this area.  The breadth was -60%.  New highs dropped way down to 47.  New lows shot up to 82.  Bonds were strong today (flight to safety?) so closed end bond funds were not what caused the spike in new lows. 


The futures bounced overnight, but started heading lower immediately after the open.  They ended the day below the 20 SMA.  No confirmation of a break yet. 


The green count slipped further today.  The red line is turning up sharply so another down day will probably generate a negative cross.  The intermediate indicator has crossed above 50.  A new rally high would greatly increase the odds the correction is over. 


The last two days have seen considerable selling.  All three time frames are barely positive.

This looks like an important juncture.  Any more downside and the internals will start getting negative again.  Closing back below the 50 DMA would put SPX back inside the triangle.  That would make the recent upside break out a failure.  A false break out most often leads to a break out the other side.  The bulls need to show they can hold a rally.  Over the last three days intraday bounces have been sold quickly.  SPX may end up retesting that Feb. low after all.  Trade war talk seems to have taken the wind out of the bulls sails for the moment.  A strong bounce tomorrow is needed by the bulls.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.