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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Daily update 2/28

For the first time in a long time there was some serious selling in the month end window dressing.


SPX closed below the 50 SMA, but above the 20.  The breadth was -71%.  New highs dropped way down to 39.  New lows picked up to 117.  


The futures opened up and made a couple of attempts to rally.  However, they got crushed in the afternoon.  They dipped below the 200 SMA briefly at the close, but bounced back in after hours.  This is key support to keep the rally going.  They need to hold here.


The green count slipped quite a bit, but is still slightly above the red line.  Another down day would not be good for bulls.

The high TRIN at the close brought out the dip buyers early in the day.  However, there was some serious selling in the afternoon.  One odd thing was QQQ was positive nearly all day then got hammered in the last 15 minutes.  Apparently there was still considerable derisking to be done.  The first of the month is historically bullish.  The bulls need to get SPX back above the 50 DMA.  SPX is still above the 2/22 close so the last four days have basically been a round trip.  The short term trend is up and the first of the month is historically bullish.  The bulls might show up and try to restart the rally.  I thought we had gotten past the point of a retest of the low, but another down day brings that back into play.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

Powell is back in front of the senate tomorrow.  I listened to his testimony somewhat the other day.  I did not hear the hawkishness the market seems to think was there.  After the last two days there might be some clarifying comments.  We will see.

Bob

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Daily update 2/27

Blame it on Powell.


The bulls were in charge early on.  During Powell's q&a he apparently said something that made people think he opened the door to 4 rate hikes this year.  Bonds and stocks sold off and the dollar rallied.  Breadth was -76%.  New highs were 92 while new lows increased to 55.


The futures looked like they were trying to get into accelerated up move mode this morning, but the sell off brought them back into the channel.  That indicates the up move if it continues will probably be at a slower pace.


The green count plunged back below 50, but remains above the red line. 

Today brings to mind the old saying what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.  If today does not kill the rally then it should make it stronger and increase the odds we make a new high.  News induced moves usually have a short life span.  It seems more likely the market retraces the down move rather then rolls over and heads significantly lower.  However, today indicates the market is much more sensitive to what interest rates are doing then it has been.  If rates keep going up it could be a problem for stocks.  I don't know if that is likely or not.  Some people make the case that bonds are extremely oversold and there are a lot of bond shorts.  That can be a recipe for a reversal.  However, sometimes the crowd is right.  Investors got heavily short the dollar last year.  It got oversold and kept on going down.  Bonds may reverse, but they might not. 

Powell will be in front of the senate on Thursday.  I suspect he will adjust what he says.  The FED may even issue something tomorrow saying people misunderstood.  At least that is what the Yellen FED would do.  With new leadership things may be different. 

A close back below the 50 DMA could be a problem.  However, SPX confirmed the upside break of that MA.  The bulls may come out grab the bargains.  The TRIN closed over 2 which gives the bulls another reason to show up. If the bulls get a positive close tomorrow then I would think the market will continue higher.

Bob

Monday, February 26, 2018

Daily update 2/26

Solid afternoon buying.


SPX conquered the 2/5 high.  Breadth was +63%.  New highs expanded a bit to 91.  New lows were stable at 24.  Bulls were busy buying the intraday dips.


The futures ended the day just above the upper channel line.  They rallied more after hours.  Showing strength and remaining above the upper channel line would put them in accelerated up move mode again.  Coming right back in tomorrow would indicate a pullback to the 20 SMA is likely.


The green count remains above 50, but below overbought levels.  There is more room to rally.

Since 2013 this market has loved to make V bottoms and does not know what a lower high is.  We are clearly well past the point of a retest of the low in the near future.  If past is prologue SPX should make it to a new high.  I think all those money managers expecting a retest are now experiencing a high amount of FOMO.  They will probably be in chase the market mode.  What happens if/when we make new highs is an open question.  That could depend on what interest rates do.  I would expect a lot of negative divergences because of the severity of the sell off and the V bottom.  To keep a larger correction from happening the market will have to push to new highs and keep going.

Bob

Friday, February 23, 2018

Daily update 2/23 ECRI still looking for slowdown in growth

Lift off.


The afternoon sellers took the day off.  Late in the day when the market was still up bulls got emboldened to pile in.  Breadth was +79%.  New highs were still low at 43.  New lows dropped down to 30 as bonds rallied today.  SPX closed right at the 2/21 high.  It looks like the buyers outlasted the afternoon sellers.


The futures confirmed upside breaks of the 20, 50, and 200 MAs.  This appears to be bullish.


The green count sprinted higher and is above 50.  This looks bullish.

It looks like the rallied restarted today.  SPY has possible resistance at 275 from options with possible acceleration above 275.5.  I think the market should have enough upside momentum to get through there with the look of things.  So many money managers were expecting a retest of the low.  I was wondering if that would mean it would not happen or become a self fulfilling prophecy.  It looks like it won't happen in the near term.  Down the road is a different question.  For now I think those same managers will have to pile in.  The last four days probably sucked in some shorts.  Further upside on Monday will cause a bit of a short squeeze.  A close back below the 50 DMA means today was a fake out and the odds would shift to the bears and a retest of the low.

I happened to catch Tom Mclellan on CNBC.  He is still looking for a top in March and a sell off into Oct.  Based on what happened today I could see that scenario playing out.  I think money managers are likely to chase the market here pushing it to new highs.  A strong jobs report in the March data could cause a rise in rates and spark another sell off in stocks.  With the volatility we just had it is not hard to imagine a multi month sell off ensuing.  Something to think about as we watch the price action unfold.

In the latest video ECRI still claims there will be a growth slow down.  They claim the bond market is starting to show the same thing as their long lead indicators are showing.  https://www.businesscycle.com/#  I am not seeing the slow down in the data yet.  That does not mean it won't happen though.  Back in 2016 their long lead indicators did a good job of forecasting the strength that happened many months later.  I will keep my eyes open for it.  If that were to happen it could help make that sell off into Oct. more likely.


Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Daily update 2/22

Another crazy day.


The market gapped up and buyers piled in.  SPX tested the 20 SMA one more time, and once again the sellers showed up in the afternoon.  Four rally failures in a row.  As expected there are some money managers that need to derisk a bit.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs dropped way down to 31 despite the rally.  Not a good thing.  New lows were stable at 77.  Also not a good thing. 


The futures confirmed a break of the 20, 50  and 200 SMAs in the night.  However, they started a big rally and were positive by the open.  The rally continued until noon.  The afternoon sell off prevented them from confirming a break above the MAs.  The three MAs are coming into close proximity.  The market should embark on its next move pretty soon.


The green count moved back up a bit, but remains below 50. 

The last four days have seen morning rallies that fizzled in the afternoon.  The last three days the afternoon selling took SPY back below its open.  It probably is mostly retail investors buying in the morning and pros selling in the afternoon.  The question becomes is there enough buyers to handle all the supply.  SPX needs to get a confirmed break of the 20 DMA on the upside to restart the rally.  A close below 2689 probably starts the move down to retest the low.

Bob

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Daily update 2/21

The bulls fumbled the ball.


SPX rallied right from the open up to near yesterday's high.  It chopped around until the FED minutes were released at 2 PM.  It then rocketed up and over the 20 SMA.  Breadth was +73%.  About 2:30 the sellers took over.  SPX fell back below the 50 SMA and closed below yesterday's low.  That was the third failure by the bulls to climb above the 20 SMA.  That may be all they get.  Breadth ended the day -52%.  New highs were 79.  New lows increased again to 73 (probably with the help of the bond funds). 


The futures ended the day back below the 200 SMA.  No confirmed break yet.  If we get confirmation then the odds shift to a retest of the low. 


The green count slipped a bit more today.  It would be pretty easy for a negative cross now.

The bulls had a great chance to restart the rally today.  However, after the FED meeting bonds sold off considerably sending all longer rates to new recent highs.  I am sure that helped spark the afternoon sell off. 

What happens to rates from here?  In Daily update 2/1 Has the interest rate environment changed? I showed the monthly chart of the 5 year rate with a 50/100 MA crossover for the first time since rates started falling back in the 80s.  So far rates are doing what one would expect if there truly is a regime change in the bond market. We may be starting a long term uptrend in rates which will completely change the investing environment that we have been in for well over 30 years.  I still need to see confirmation on the 30 year rate chart.  I will be keeping an eye on that. 

In order to keep the rally going I think the bulls need to show up in force tomorrow.  I think the odds of that are low though.  It seems more likely today restarted the down move.  Another down day tomorrow should give control back to the bears.  I have mentioned a number of times that nearly everybody on CNBC is expecting a retest.  That should mean there are lots of buyers just waiting there.  Should we get that retest the market could reverse sharply again. 

Bob

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Daily update 2/20 SPY options

The bears outlasted the dip buyers.


The gap down below the 50 SMA was met with some dip buyers.  However, a mid day rally above the 50 was met with sellers and they won the afternoon.  Breadth was -64%.  New highs were 64 and new lows were 45.  There is clear resistance between the 20 and 50 SMAs.


The futures closed above the 50 SMA, but did not confirm a break.  They ended the day back below it.  The low today was just above the 200 SMA.  We are caught between resistance and support now.  Until the 50 or 200 is broken we are likely to see a choppy trade.


The green count turned down from below 50.  The bulls still have work to do to get control back.


The latest SPY option data shows a lot of calls and puts at 275.  Above 275.5 delta hedging could accelerate prices higher.  Further upside could see more hedging above 277.5 and 280.5.  On the flip side there are a lot of puts at the 270 strike.  Below 269.5 delta hedging could accelerate prices to the down side.  Further hedging below 264.5 and 261.5.  Note the 270 strike is not very far below current prices.  The bulls don't have a lot of room to work with to hold the market up.

The market found resistance for a second day.  Is it insurmountable?  It could be.  It might not take all that much more downside to start another cascade lower to retest the recent low.  There seems to be a consensus among money managers and traders on CNBC the recent low will be retested.  I am not seeing anything at the moment that suggests otherwise.  The bulls need another shot of momentum and clear the 20 DMA. 

Bob

Friday, February 16, 2018

Daily update 2/16

Resistance found.


SPX hit the 20 SMA and found a few sellers.  Breadth was +56%.  New highs were 76 with new lows dropping to 25.  This is a logical place for sellers to show up.  This may not be the end of the rally, but some downward action looks likely.  If selling materializes we will have to determine if it is strong enough to end the bounce or not.  We could get some see saw action.


The futures ran up to the 100 SMA which provided solid resistance.  Price spiked up to the MA and sellers came out very quickly to send it back down.


The green count almost made it up to 50.  The intermediate line shows a lot of technical .  Usually the recent low gets retested in this situation.

SPX clearly ran into resistance at the 20 DMA.  Some kind of pullback seems likely here.  The sharp move up seemed to catch a lot of people by surprise.  The option sellers sold a lot of futures to hedge on the way down.  They were probably buying them back as price came back up through the strikes.  Now SPY is back to the scene of the crime (where the 2/5 crash started) today so there will be no more undoing of hedges to provide buying power.  We should find out if the volatility explosion has caused money managers to think about their risk levels.  I heard a money manager on CNBC say if managers were surveyed about 90% of them think the low will be tested.  That could easily make it a self fulfilling prophecy if true.



Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Daily update 2/15

More buying.


There were a few sellers into the opening gap.  However, the selling did not last long before the dip buyers rushed in.  SPX closed above its 50 SMA.  Breadth was +65%.  New highs were 68.  New lows came in at 46.  So far the selling has been muted on this bounce.  Will it pick up here in the area of the 50?


The early morning sell off took the futures back down to the 200 SMA.  They found support immediately and bounced strongly the rest of the day.  The 100 SMA lies about another 20 points above.  That is an area that could provide some resistance.


The green count crossed above the red line, but remains below 50.  We have completely worked off the oversold condition now based on this indicator.  Sometimes that will bring the sellers back out.

A lot of people seem to expect a retest of the low before the bull market resumes.  Will it become a self fulfilling prophecy or will the opposite happen (V bottom back to highs).  We have had good breadth and volume on this bounce, but I can't say that is enough that we won't see a retest.  The first crash down day (2/5) had a high of 2763.  The 20 DMA lies at 2754.  That area could be significant resistance.  Closing above there could cause FOMO to kick in and those looking for a retest of the low might pile in thinking they missed the bottom.  This deep of a sell off historically has seen the low retested most of the time.  However, in this bull market we have seen many V bottoms.  I have no idea how this will work out.  SPX has about another 25-30 points it needs to get through to shift the odds there will be no retest in the near term.  Can it do that?  Beats me.  There is a real possibility that many people are rethinking the amount of risk in their portfolios.  Some may want to lighten up.  That would not be surprising given the rapidity of the move down.  Now that we have worked off the short term oversold condition this rally may run out of steam.  One possibility few are talking about is that a retest of the low could end up failing.  One thing bothering me is the way Jan. unfolded.  There were huge inflows into stocks that month and we had overly and I mean overly bullish sentiment.  That really could have been a final blow off top.  Should the market roll over and break the recent low the market could be in real trouble.  A close by SPX back below the 50 DMA could bring the sellers back in force.

Bob

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Daily update 2/14 The Advent of a Cynical Bubble

Buying despite higher rates across the curve.


The CPI data at 8:30 AM sent the futures down almost 40 points.  However, the dip buyers stepped in to start them moving back up.  After the open the VIX plunged even though the market was still in the red.  Once it dropped below 20 buyers became more ambitious.  Breadth started out at -73%, but ended at +65%.  Quite the reversal.  New highs picked up a bit to 39.  New lows were stable at 80.  The 50 SMA is still another 20 points higher.  That seems like a minimum target now.


The premarket dip in the futures sent them back below the 20 SMA.  However, the dip buyers showed up and pushed them back above it.  They now confirmed yesterday's break of the 20.  They ended the day slightly above the 200 SMA.  That line provided resistance for a while today, but late in the day the futures pushed through it. 


The green count is starting to turn up sharply now. 


The short term bull pressure lines have now crossed back positive.  They are showing some significant buying pressure.  The long term lines remained positive through the sell off.  They could still get a negative cross down the road depending on whether the buying continues to be strong or not.

The market has worked off the short term oversold condition.  I think the VIX dropping below 20 is probably significant.  Some people look at that as a sign the worst is over.  QQQ and IWM were leading on the upside which is usually a bullish sign.  The rally might be getting some legs.  It looks like it is getting enough strength it won't roll over right away.  I looked at 5, 10 and 30 year rates at the close and they were all at new local highs.  The 10 year is over 2.9% now.  That did not stop the buying today.  Whether that causes a problem for stocks if/when they get higher remains to be seen.  For now it looks like we go higher to me.

This is an interesting read.  I very much agree with the type of bubble we have.  The Advent of a Cynical Bubble

Bob

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Daily update 2/13

A little more bounce.


The market opened down a little bit this morning, but then held firm for several hours.  The bulls took over in the afternoon and pushed prices slightly higher.  Breadth was +55%, but was negative the first half of the day.  New highs were 21 and new lows dropped a bit more to 50.  There were enough buyers to absorb the selling pressure this morning.  That should be a positive sign.


The futures consolidated a few bars under the 20 SMA.  The afternoon rally was enough to get a close above it.  No confirmation of a break yet though.  The bounce is gathering a little bit of strength.


The red count imploded meaning many stocks are becoming short term neutral on their daily charts.

The market has worked off the short term oversold condition a bit now.  With SPX up three days in a row the bulls might get a little more confident.  Tomorrow is an important day.  Any oversold market can bounce for three days.  The fourth day is usually the tell.  If we do not roll over tomorrow the bounce could start to pick up some believers.  A close below today's low (2637) would likely bring out the sellers again.

Bob

Monday, February 12, 2018

Daily update 2/12

Upside follow through.


There were bouts of selling today, but the bulls persevered.  Breadth was +70%.  New highs were still very low at 12.  New lows fell off to 74.  It looks like we are trying to make a short term low.


The futures hit the 20 SMA and backed off.  This chart looks constructive for further upside.  That is the first green price bar since the sell off began. 


The red count is coming down, but is still oversold.

The market is still very oversold short term.  There should be more impetus for a rebound.  The margin call selling should be over for now as well.  SPX closed above last Monday's low.  I really have no idea what to expect.  There is no example of such an explosion of volatility after such a long quiet period.  Normally volatility increases somewhat slowly.  I believe we will test Friday's low again someday, but how the price action unfolds is tough to guess.

I see and hear plenty of comforting words in the media.  The truth is nobody knows what will happen going forward.  We have never been in a position where the FED was shrinking the balance sheet.  They all say the fundamentals are good, but the fundamentals are subject to change with rising rates.  Nobody knows.  It is time to pay attention and see what happens. 

Bob

Friday, February 9, 2018

Daily update 2/9

Rebound.


SPX briefly penetrated the 200 SMA, but rebounded sharply.  Breadth was crazy.  It was +70% at 9:55 AM.  The plunge took it down to -84% at the low.  After the rebound we ended the day +56%.  You just don't see swings like that very often.  New highs were 9 while new lows were 341.


Last night I wrote "Even though SPX made a new low the futures are still above the prior overnight low.  I do not know if we need to test that low to make a bottom or not."  I guess the answer was yes.  The futures tested the prior overnight low today and rebounded sharply.  They ended the day back above the lower channel line thus putting them in consolidation mode.  Given the oversold nature of the market a bounce is more likely then sideways consolidation.

I see two big green volume bars in the SPX chart and a nice rebound off the 200 DMA.  This looks like it should be a short term bottom and could provide a sizable bounce.  However, I think this low will be retested down the road.  A rally from here seems unlikely to make it all the way back to new highs without running into trouble.  We have had a lot of V bottoms in this bull market.  I think we have had more in the last 9 years then in all of history.  I think that era is over.  As you know I have been expecting the volatility regime to move to a higher level for a long time.  Based on past history it is long overdue.  I think it is finally here though.  The FED is reducing its balance sheet and raising rates.  Long term rates have also been on the rise.  That combination should lead to higher volatility for quite some time.

I heard Josh Brown say the market has never gone from a new all time high to down 10% in 9 days before in all of history.  I mentioned last night I could not find any similar looking pattern.  What troubles me is that nearly everybody is saying don't worry.  After years of people nearly panicking on a 5% drop over a month they are all cool, calm and collected after the fastest 10% drop in history.  That is usually what happens during the initial stage of a bear market.  Keep that in mind as the price action unfolds in the coming weeks.  We might still be in a bull market, but we might not.  I will be watching closely for further clues.

I think this one is appropriate.


Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Daily update 2/8

Another big splat.


I have studied the Dow price for the last 100 years I can tell you I have never seen anything like this.  The low volatility sharp run up and sudden splat just did not happen to the index before.  I have seen similar things with individual stocks, but not the broad market.  This is exactly what I have been afraid would happen.  Whether this is really the end of the bull market remains to be seen, but I fear more and more that might be the case.  Today closed below Tuesday's gap down low that the bulls piled into.  Now they are underwater.  Breadth was -87%.  New highs were a paltry 16.  New lows were 198. 


The futures tried to get back into the channel overnight, but failed again.  Even though SPX made a new low the futures are still above the prior overnight low.  I do not know if we need to test that low to make a bottom or not.  After the 4 PM close the futures rallied furiously over 20 points.  I don't have a clue why that would be.  Yesterday they sold off hard right after the close, but were back up by the open.  They have settled back some now up about 12 points from the close.  There is no telling where they will be by morning.


No divergence in the red count yet.  It is extremely oversold though.  Also note the drop below 50 of the intermediate indicator in the bottom panel.  The last time it did that the market bottomed and shot up like a rocket.  That is actually unusual.  The normal action is for any low to be retested before a good bottom is made.  Should today make a short term low it is likely to be retested after a bounce.

The rebound after Monday's splat was greatly helped by the TRIN being over 3 at the close.  Today we had a TRIN of only 1.1.  That will be no help for the bulls tomorrow.  I am sure this sell off will echo around the world just like it did on Monday.  If we have a big gap down again they might not be in such a hurry to buy it.  Since SPX closed right near the low a gap up has high odds of testing today's low.  Today's close was about 2.5% below Monday's close.  We should have cleared the margin calls from that close today.  I wonder if that was what drove the futures up after the close.  People thinking the forced selling was over so the market might bounce.  The question now is whether today's lower close will cause more margin calls or not.  I am hearing some talk of Value at Risk (VAR) models making some money managers needing to de-risk a lot more.  This is not margin call selling so it does not have the same urgency, but it will certainly be a drag on the market.  SPX is also close enough to its 200 DMA that it could act as a magnet.  Another down Friday could lead to another big down Monday.  The bulls would like to see a bounce tomorrow.  I just don't know whether they will get it or not.

I heard on guy on TV suggesting this is a good time to raise some cash and maybe buy some gold.  Everybody else was saying don't worry the economy is good.  The volatility is unpleasant, but we should look through it.  Have a list of what you want to buy and don't panic.  I can understand that advice from the point of the view of the economic data.  It looks fine.  The problem is that a large part of the strength is likely from last year's natural disasters and will be winding down as the year goes on.  That includes the entire world.  We don't make much stuff here in this country anymore.  All these repairs require stuff to be imported.  This is what caused this headline just the other day:

"U.S. trade deficit rises to nine-year high on robust imports"

This same thing happened after hurricane Sandy hit NYC.  The entire globe saw a pickup in economic activity.  While the global economy looks just fine today it might not look nearly as well in six months.  This dip may end up being a great buying op and the market may go on to new highs.  However, it is possible this is the start of a bear market.  This does not look like any pullback I have seen in my 19 years of market study.  I don't have a clue how this works out and neither does anybody else.  All I can say is there is a risk of serious downside from all the leverage.  I have no way of knowing if this is the beginning of the great unwind.  It certainly could be.  However, we have broken the 200 DMA a number of times in this bull market and have rallied on to new highs.  We could still do that again.  I don't really know of anything near by that says this is where all hell breaks out.  Maybe the 500 DMA (2320).  The last important low was Nov. 2016 (2083).  That is a long ways from here.  Breaking that would likely confirm a bear market.

Bob

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Daily update 2/7

Yesterday I wrote:
 "I would expect a gap up tomorrow to get sold into fairly quickly.  On a gap down they might wait a bit to see if there is any follow on buying."


The market gapped down and the sellers held off.  Buyers stepped in, but ran out of steam after a couple of hours.  The sellers won the afternoon with SPX closing near the low.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs were a whopping 22.  New lows dropped way down to 47. 


The futures tested above the 200 SMA this morning.  They got above the lower channel line, but failed to stay there.  Ending the day below the lower channel line keeps them in accelerated down move mode.  After the close the futures kept heading south.  They are down over 10 points from the 4 PM close at the moment.

Yesterday's big volume looks like the market should make a bottom around here.  Breaking yesterday's low would crush dip buyers a second time.  That could send SPX down to the 200 DMA.  Some kind of retest of yesterday's low is probably needed to form a bottom.  If the futures remain negative overnight that could happen over the next couple of days.

Baby boomers saw two 50% crashes in less then two decades.  Now they are getting older and have less time to recover from another one.  I have to wonder if this explosion in volatility won't give them a little scare.  That could make some want to dial back on risk somewhat.  The pundits are all in the media talking about how good the fundamentals are and that we should not worry.  The problem is we have the second highest valuations in history (only 2000 higher) combined with the second highest amount of leverage (only 1929 higher). Leverage this high has never unwound in a slow and gentle fashion.  What are the odds it will be different this time?  Leverage is a loaded gun pointed at this market.  I need to figure out when the trigger has been pulled as soon as possible.  I just wish I knew how to do that.

Bob

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Daily update 2/6

Rebound.  The high TRIN from yesterday worked its magic.


Quite the buying spree in the afternoon when the market did not collapse earlier in the day.  The breadth was +69%.  New highs were 9.  Yeah, I had to look at that twice.  New lows were 464.  Lots of volume today.


The futures are testing the 200 SMA from the bottom.  They are still below the lower channel line and in accelerated down move mode. 

Today was a good start at making a bottom.  However, I am pretty sure there will be some margin call selling yet to come in the next day or two.  If today's low is still intact at Thursday's close we are likely to have a short term bottom.  I heard a discussion on CNBC about a possible $200 billion to sell of equities from margin calls from the VIX explosion.  I do not know if those numbers are anywhere near reality, but if they are we might end up going below today's low.  I would expect a gap up tomorrow to get sold into fairly quickly.  On a gap down they might wait a bit to see if there is any follow on buying.  Should the forced selling break today's low the next target would appear to be the 200 DMA.  A close above today's high probably indicates a V bottom and a return trip to the highs.

Bob

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.