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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Daily update 1/9 Hussman's chart in response to Jeremy Grantham's melt up

SPX ran into a few sellers.


SPX closed about 8 points off the high.  First time this year we found afternoon sellers.  Despite the new high close the breadth was actually -57%.  Generally that means exhaustion.  New highs were 278.  New lows increased considerably to 38 which is very elevated for a new high.


The futures look a like they are losing momentum now.  They are still outside the channel, but appear to be slowing down considerably for the moment.


The green count reached overbought levels today. 

SPX is very overbought in the short and long term being so far above the 200 DMA.   The market looked a little tired today.  Whether that means anything remains to be seen.  The market looked tired a few times last year, but refused to pullback very far.  The BOJ surprised people by announcing cutbacks in their bond buying.  Both the ECB and BOJ are tapering QE programs while the FED is doing QT.  There will definitely be less liquidity around this year.  That seems like a recipe for a little higher volatility.  We are just days away from the longest period without a 5% pullback in history.  I think that streak will end this year.  We have a good setup for a pullback now.  It remains to be seen if anybody is actually interested in selling.  I thought there might be some pent up selling pressure caused by the tax cuts.  However, there has been no sign of that yet.  The panic buying may be subsiding so we might find out if there are any sellers out there soon.

Here is John Hussman's chart in response to the Jeremy Grantham article I linked to in the blog last night with some comments. 


I guess I am not the only one that thinks we are already well into the accelerated up phase.  The only question is how much longer does it last.  Tom McClellan is expecting the bull market top in March.  This is the first time that I am aware of in this bull market he has indicated the end might be coming up.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.