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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Daily update 1/2

Welcome to 2018.  SPX, R2000 and COMPX all made new high closes.  I thought that would happen last week, but since I said that in the blog the market would not cooperate. 


Volume accompanied the buying today.  Breadth was +60%. New highs were stable at 183.  That strikes me as a little odd given we had 181 on Friday.  New lows actually increased to 33.  The internals do not suggest we are launching a new leg up.  However, rallies can get legs so we will have to see if the buying continues.  I think it more likely this is a retest of the Dec. high.


The futures rallied off the 50 SMA.  They stopped just short of the upper channel line.  Will they be able to break out?  They were 2.25 points short of an all time high. 


The green count picked up quite a bit, but remains below 50.  If this is initiation of a new leg it should climb up over 60 soon.

Now that indexes are back to the highs we will see if sellers show up again.  It will be amazing to me if there is no pent up selling after last year's lack of pullbacks.  Last year was the 9th up year in a row which tied the record from the 90s.  If 2018 is positive it will break a record for most consecutive up years.  Will we or won't we?  I suspect the market will be more interesting to blog about this year. I ran out of ways to say the market is going higher last year! 

One year ago it was 82 here.  Today it was 43 and we have a winter storm warning out for tomorrow morning.  The weather and markets can change from year to year.  The most bearish Wall Street strategist I have seen so far is looking for around a 3% gain for SPX.  There is a lack of bears for sure.  If something goes wrong it will surprise people.  Too bad I don't know what the odds are of something going wrong.  There will definitely be less liquidity around this year.  Will there be enough less to cause a problem for the market though.  Time will tell.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.