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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, January 5, 2018

Daily udpate 1/5

Panic buying continues.


To the moon!  This is acting like a short term blow off top.  People piling in today can't be chart watchers.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs were down considerably to 241.  New lows were up a little to 22.


The futures remain outside the channel in accelerated up move mode.  Quite the straight up chart since hitting the 50 SMA.


The green count is reaching overbought levels now.  This is probably peak momentum of this move, but not necessarily the top.

I happened to hear Kevin O'Leary on CNBC saying he could find nothing wrong with the market and it is great to be an investor now.  That brought to mind this Warren Buffet quote: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends."  That comment from O'Leary sounds like euphoria doesn't it?  I am having flashbacks to 2000 lately.  I never expected to see another bubble like that anytime soon, but I guess I was wrong.  People's memories are a lot shorter then I would have believed.  What I find most amazing is the number of people that think this will end badly, but believe they will be smart enough to get out in time.  Everybody cannot get out on time.  I think there is significant risk of a 29 or 87 style crash because the exit will be extremely crowded.  The final high is likely to be a spike up just like this with no sign it is the end.  I don't know if we have days, weeks, or months left, but it is looking more and more like this bull market will end this year.  Enjoy the ride, but don't be the last one out the door.


Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.