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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 8, 2017

Daily update 12/8 S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Warns Of Wave 5 Top

SPX new high close.


Global markets were positive overnight helping the U.S. market to gap up at the open.  Thanks to a jam job in the last few minutes SPX closed above 2650.  It got above there earlier in the day, but found no buying interest.  Both R2000 and COMPX showed relative weakness to SPX.  Not a particularly good sign.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs increased a bit to 106, but well off the pace of 285 on the last high close.  Another not very good sign.


The futures pushed higher thanks to the help of global markets.  The real question is will there be buyers up here next week.


The green count barely moved up and remains below 50.  Not the strongest looking chart for a new high.

The SOX ended up -.5% and moved slowly down all day after the gap up at the open.  People taking profits after their big move up this year I guess.  The volume seems to be settling down so the mad panic rotation that was going on for a few days must be winding down.  Today's new high in SPX does not seem very sturdy and may not indicate the market is marching higher again.  Will buyers show up next week to keep it going?  I have my doubts especially since seasonally that week usually sees some selling.  Global markets seem to be calming down a bit.  Whether that will last the rest of the year I cannot say.  There has been very little selling pressure all year.  I am sure that is due to the expectation of tax cuts next year.  That likely means there is pent up selling that might be unleashed come Jan. 

I have heard Tom McClellan interviewed a number of times over the years.  His methods of analysis can be pretty bizarre, but I have to say he seems to be correct a lot.  I recently heard him and he is expecting an important low in gold late in Dec.  He is also expecting a very important top in stocks next March.  I don't know if he will be right on stocks, but at this point I can see no particular reason for him not to be.  That should mean any pent up selling that happens in Jan. could lead to a nice buying op for one more run to new highs. 

Interesting article for the bears out there.  S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Warns Of Wave 5 Top

Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.