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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 29, 2017

Daily update 12/29

SPX climbed above the prior high close at the open, but sellers came out immediately on the gap up.


There have been sellers around on any bit of strength intraday all week.  I thought the sellers would be mostly on vacation.  They must of left some junior traders in the office to get some selling done.  The buyers were really scarce.  Breadth was -58%.  New highs came in at 181.  New lows dropped down to 10.


The bulls bid up futures for no reason that I could find overnight.  They even managed to make a new high by one tick overnight, but the sellers started right in.  By the open they were several points off the high.  The futures confirmed the break of the 20 SMA and ended the day below the 50 SMA and lower channel line.


The green count is still above the red line, but it is looking a little bit precarious now.

The 12/18 gap up is certainly acting like an exhaustion gap.  While the selling pressure has been low there has been very little buying interest.  SPX got extremely extended from the 200 DMA and appears to be needing a pullback.  I have heard a few others mention there could be some pent up selling pressure early next year.  I would not be surprised to see it start on Tuesday.

Hear are my predictions for 2018.

1. SPX will have at least a 3.1% pullback.

2. SPX will contact its 200 DMA.

Way to go out on a limb huh.  I am pretty sure number one will happen.  It would be nice if number two came true as well.  Nobody said I needed to make useful predictions so I figure I might as well make ones that have a pretty good chance of actually happening.
 




I wish everybody a Happy New Year.  No guarantee though!  Warning:  Drinking and tweeting or texting can be hazardous.

Bob

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.