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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Daily update 12/12 DJ30 Tops by month

Looking a bit tired, but a new high close on SPX.


SPX came up just short of 2570 intraday.  Both QQQ and IWM ended in the red.  Breadth was -52%.  New highs were stable again at 113.  New lows were also stable at 25.  Not great for a new high.  SPX is almost 50 points above its 20 SMA so it is really extended.



The futures managed to stay above the upper channel line today.  However, they did not get any separation so it will still be easy for them to drop back inside.


The green count dropped considerably.  SPX is getting a bit weak here.

SPX is very extended and internals look a little tired.  Maybe we still get that mid Dec. pullback yet.  Tomorrow the FED is expected to raise rates .25.  SPX has struggled in the next several weeks after the previous hikes.  Maybe that will be enough to spark a bit of selling.  The famed Santa rally is the 5 days between Christmas and New Years and the first two days of Jan.  There is still a few days to have a pullback.  I am not sure about the first two days of Jan. though.  I am sure there is pent up selling. 

Senator Rand Paul made comments today about not supporting the tax bill.  The republicans don't have much leeway to get it passed.  There is also the much talked about Alabama election which might have a democrat win.  In that case it would put extra pressure on the republicans to get the deal done this year.  Anything that looks like the tax cuts will be a problem seems to upset the market.  I have no clue how that will work out.  Just something to keep an eye on in case the whole thing blows up for some reason.

Here is an interesting look at tops by month.

December odds of starting a bear market are very low. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.