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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, December 11, 2017

Daily update 12/11 Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears

New closing high!


Asian markets were positive.  That seemed to be enough to spark a little bit of buying in tech stocks which drove SPX to a new high close.  R2000 closed down just a bit.  Breadth was barely positive.  New highs were stable at 110 which was much lower then the late Nov. numbers.  New lows were 24 which is elevated for a new high.


The futures started popping the last 15 minutes of the day and continued higher after hours.  I don't know what that was about.  At any rate they ended the day outside the upper channel line.  However, they are now trading back inside the channel.  When the futures come right back in the channel they tend to visit the lower channel line.  If the futures are still in the channel in the morning then a pullback to that lower line would be likely.  That is about 35 points lower. 


The green count improved a little bit, but remains below 50.  Still not great for a market at new highs.


HYG still has not gotten back above its 200 SMA.  There is the potential for a higher low and rally from here.  The jury is still out on that though.

I apologize for forgetting the option chart on Friday.


It would appear there is a lot of call overhead starting at 263.  There is a huge amount of calls here at 265.  It seems unlikely SPY would be above that on Friday.  Put support comes in at 262 and 260.  However, those numbers are not all that much higher then the call numbers at those strikes.  There are almost as many calls as puts at 260.  The 263 level is where calls really start to outnumber puts.  It would not be surprising to see SPY close around there on Friday.  That would coincide nicely with the pattern mentioned in the futures above if they come back inside the channel.

Market internals are not particularly strong.  The option configuration suggests there could be considerable resistance around here through Friday.  The FED is expected to raise rates on Wed.  That sounds like a recipe for some consolidation this week. 

Interesting article on commercial and industrial loan growth.  Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears   I don't think a recession is imminent.  However, China could throw a monkey wrench into the situation before 2018 is over depending on what happens over there.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.