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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

Up 10/9/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Daily update 11/9

Interesting day for a change.


SPX gapped down and rallied early on before selling down again, but it was not done.  An afternoon rally made back some of the loss.  SPX penetrated the 20 SMA before the buyers showed up.  Breadth was -61%.  New highs fell all the way down to 71.  New lows came in at 65.  Volume was a little elevated once again after being a little quieter for a couple of days.


At least the futures did what they were supposed to do.  In Daily update 11/7 I wrote "They closed outside of the upper channel line this morning, but came right back in.  That usually means a trip to the lower line."  They penetrated the lower line and bounced right back.  They closed below the 20 SMA this moring, but did not confirm a break.  They actually closed back above it.  That usually means the rally will continue, but not necessarily strong enough to break out above the upper line.


The green count slipped, but remains above the red line.  The bulls still not letting go.

Overnight Japan had a mini flash crash and rally back event.  That seemed to be blamed for Europe selling off.  I never head an excuse for why the Euro was so strong today.  It is possible the Euro had more to do with the European sell off then Japan.  All that set the stage for the down U.S. open.  I think it all combined to provide an excuse for some people to take some chips off the table.  The selling was not particularly violent.  The dip buyers were more then happy to step in and snap up the bargains once again.  At least there was a bit of a discount today. 

The futures suggest the market should continue this afternoon's bounce tomorrow.  However, overnight news could change that of course.  With Europe closing much lower then the U.S. they could easily have their bounce back tomorrow and get the U.S. off to a positive start.  I don't know that we can be assured SPX will make new highs right away.  HYG was down again today.  I heard Art Cashin mention that today and seemed to be slightly concerned about it.  Unlike other instances of HYG tanking that were related to oil this time is unexplained to me so far.  From what I have been able to discern it is not one particular sector.  That of course is a bit more worrisome.  A broad based sell off could be about the economy.  The bond market usually smells out trouble before stocks.  It is too soon to tell anything though.  HYG had a lot of volume today and it is famous for climax bottoms.  The sell off could be over for now.  We will have to see what it does in the next few days.  Should SPX continue down a close below today's low (2566) could usher in more selling and possibly start a long awaited pullback.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.