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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Daily update 11/29

A very strange day.


An awful lot of volume today to go nowhere.  Breadth was slightly negative.  New highs spiked up to 293.  New lows were up just a bit to 62.  While SPX was spinning its wheels there was a lot of action under the covers.  There was a massive rotation as SOX was -4.39%, QQQ -1.85% , IYT +3.4% and XLF +1.97%.  I am not sure what sparked the selling in the semiconductors or the buying in the transports.  The obvious answer may be SOX has been up big this year and IYT has lagged.  Maybe that was all there was to it.  Sell the winners and buy the laggards.  The financials are supposed to be getting a bid because tax cuts are expected to really help their earnings.


The futures moved up a bit more overnight and even though they turned down during the day they are still outside the upper channel line.


Not much change in the green count.

We have seen a number of rotational days this year.  However, none of them had the magnitude of changes as we saw in SOX and IYT.  This could be a one and done, but that is really hard to say.  Every little dip has been bought very fast since the election.  The dip buyers could rush in to snap up those now discounted semiconductor stocks right away.  Of course before every correction there is always one last high.  We are in the longest period without a 3% pullback ever.  Sooner or later it has to happen.  Maybe this is finally the time.  While rotational days like today have had limited affect on the market over the last year they sometimes signal big changes.  Since we have recently seen some global de-risking it is possible today was important and will have lasting affects.  One day does not make a trend so we will have to wait and see what happens.  As I have said before with so many expecting clear sailing on the upside through year end it would be just like the market to do something else.  If the selling starts up overseas again we could certainly go along for the ride.

The senate voted to debate the tax bill.  I guess the real fun begins now.  News of that debate could cause some intraday volatility.

Here is yet another interesting quote out of China.

China Banking Regulatory Commission representative Yu Xuejun said that the country's economy continues to face large downward pressure despite overly strong stimulus measures. 

Remember the plunging Chinese credit impulse from  Daily update 5/17 Global credit impulse   We may be seeing the affects manifesting in their economy now.

More news of trouble in the Chinese bond market.

Separate reports from China indicate that various companies have cancelled their planned sales of yuan-denominated bonds.

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.