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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/29/20

? 10/28/20

?- 10/30/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, November 20, 2017

Daily update 11/20 China Data Disappoints, As Expected

Small cap strength, big cap nothingness.


I guess the action on Friday was not option related.  SPX found support and resistance today at the same places it did on Friday.  R2000 had another strong day.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs expanded to 156.  New lows were up slightly to 36.  Volume dropped way off.  SPX is still above the 20 SMA.


Overnight the futures dipped below the 20 SMA, but had recovered before the opening bell.  Usually that means they should rally some more.  That did not happen last time though.  The upper channel line target has still not been hit.


The green count picked up a bit more, but remains below 50.  Slowly getting stronger.


The short and intermediate bull pressure lines have come together.  A positive day tomorrow would give them positive crosses.  The long term lines remain positive.

NYSE ticks started acting funny on 10/25.  That was when weakness in HYG and small cap stocks started to become apparent.  HYG bounced strongly last Thursdays as did stocks and since that time the ticks have reverted to normal behavior.  Short term internals have returned to a positive backdrop which should lead to further upside.  However, I can't really be sure the global de-risking is truly over.  Global markets have been mixed the last two days after the strong bounce on Thursday.  We could be experiencing an oversold bounce.  While the U.S. bounce looks like it should continue it could get short circuited if global selling resumes. 

Short article from ECRI patting themselves on the back on predicting a slowdown in China.  China Data Disappoints, As Expected


Fixed asset investment is growing at the slowest rate in the entire data series.  The last stock market fit was in late 2015 and early 2016 when that investment growth was taking a dive and worries about China hit stocks.  The current global selling we are seeing could be due to similar worries.  This is not the only data out of China that is showing a bit of economic weakness.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.