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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Daily update 10/3

A little more up.


SPX closed at a new high.  Breadth was +53%.  New highs expanded to 297.  New lows dropped a bit to 12.  Still above 10, but better for a new high then yesterday.


The futures remain outside the channel and in accelerated up move mode.


The green count slipped a bit today.  I was surprised to see that from the price action of SPX itself.  Currently there is a bit of a negative divergence going on.  That could easily clear up if the market continues higher.  If the market reverses before the green count gets up to the 65 area it could be a sign of future weakness.


QQQ was up a little more today, but has still not made a new high.

I was reading a piece from Howard Marks and he said that stocks are not in a bubble because there is no euphoria.  That made me look to see what the latest TTM P/E was for R2000.  It is now up to 98 according the WSJ site.  Euphoria or not there can be no question that is bubble territory.  To further that thought I give you bitcoin.  There is no intrinsic value to bitcoin.  None.  Nada.  Zip.  Is that stopping people from jumping over themselves to buy it?  Nope.  Have you ever heard of the Dutch tulip bulb mania?  We clearly have a mania/bubble mentality going on.  In 2007 we did not have a bubble in the stock and yet SPX dropped over 50% when the housing market bubble crashed.  I just don't buy the "there is no bubble argument".  Sorry to get on my soapbox.  I just want everybody to understand we are in a bubble so they don't get shocked when things go crashing down.  I know long time readers know where I stand, but I have to repeat it once in a while for any new readers that come along.

I still think QQQ is the deciding factor on whether a sizable pullback as normal for a year ending in 7 is waiting in the wings.  So far QQQ does not seem to want to break out or break down.  So we wait. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.