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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, October 2, 2017

Daily update 10/2

Heading to the moon?


Breadth was +60%.  New highs expanded to 259.  New lows came in at 18 which is a bit elevated for a strong day at new highs.


The futures remain outside the channel indicating we are still in accelerated up move mode.


The green count turned up strongly and crossed 50.  It remains below over bought.


QQQ is still a fly in the ointment.  It was barely up today.  It could still break out, but FAANG stocks were all in the red.  If it turns south it could take the rest of the market down as well.

The market sure seems to be feeling pretty good.  It reminds me of that old Warren Buffet saying "A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends."  Maybe we still have a long ways to go, but I don't really know.  Back in 2000 money started coming out of the bubble stocks and moved into the left behind areas of the market.  While the market didn't tank immediately that was the beginning of the end.  It kind of looks that way now.  The big market darlings like the FAANG stocks are going sideways while the sectors that were relatively weak this year are catching quite the bid.  Since the middle of Aug. IWM has been flying straight up.  It is possible we are making a final blow off top.  I think QQQ is probably the key.  If it fails to break out the rest of the market may turn around.  If it breaks out strongly we could probably keep on going for a while yet.  I have no idea what the odds of that happening are.  So we watch and wait to see what happens.

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.