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Friday, October 6, 2017

Daily udpate 10/6

SPX down slightly, QQQ up slightly.  Just what I said last night the bulls would want to see.  It is going to take more then one day though to equalize.

SPX gapped down a bit and never quite made it back to the green.  Breadth was -62%.  New highs dropped way down to 170.  New lows increased to 18.  The first pause day in a while.

The futures are still outside the channel.  However, ADX has started to turn down now so there are better odds the accelerated up move is coming to an end.   

The green count slipped a bit and so far has not gotten up to 65 on this last leg up.  Too soon to tell if it has peaked though.

Now that ADX is rolling over on the futures the price high that usually gets retested is set.  SPX closing on its high that day also suggests a retest should happen.  When a retest should happen, but does not the market can reverse sharply.  The first couple of days next week will be informative.  A close below yesterday's low (2540) could bring out a few sellers.  If SPX can hang above that while QQQ pushes higher it could be a sign of further gains to go here. 

I saw an article today talking about the lack of bears.  Remember last year all the billionaire fund managers talking about the market tanking and buying puts.  I have not seen anything like that this year.  It is pretty hard to find anybody calling for anything other then up from here.  He also mentioned the smugness of bulls.  I have mentioned that in the blog a few times this year.  The point of the article was that those kinds of things often mean we should be worried.  If you have been reading along the last few months you know I have been saying something similar.  I feel like I should be worried, but I can't clearly say why from a technical standpoint.  If I really get down into the nuts and bolts of the internals this should not be a bull market top.  That has been the case with every short term price peak all year.  I just can't shake this nagging feeling that something could go wrong.  I worry that when the sell switch gets flipped everybody is going to want out at once and the exit is going to be crowded.  Maybe I worry for nothing.  I guess time will tell.
Have a great weekend.


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