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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/19

? 2/28/20

Up 6/28/19

Intermediate

?- 3/20/20

Dn 3/20/20

?- 3/20/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/25/20

Short term

? 3/26/20

Up 3/26/20

? 3/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Daily update 10/31 How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get

A narrow range inside day.


The bulls showed up a little bit.  Breadth was +59%.  New highs were up a good bit to 172.  New lows were also up to 52.  The volume was elevated once again.  With the narrow range that suggests a two sided market. 


The futures pulled back to the 20 SMA, but found support and bounced again.


The red count slipped considerably, but remains above the green line.  The power is up for grabs.

It looks like the yearly R2 pivot point is providing resistance on SPX.  So far there has been enough buyers to absorb the profit taking.  The question as always is which side runs out of ammo first.  A look at the daily IWM chart shows the volatility picking up a bit in recent days.  Could a good move be brewing there one way or the other?  It certainly looks like something is going on.  Tomorrow is FED day and no change in policy is expected.  Some times in the past doing nothing as expected still caused some volatility, but that has not really been the case lately.  Tomorrow may be more of the same nothingness as the market awaits earnings from AAPL.

Good article on the mess that is GDP.  How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get

Bob

Monday, October 30, 2017

Daily update 10/30 ERCI video on profits growth slowdown

That was a lethargic day after Friday's buying panic.


SPX opened lower and never tested yesterday's high.  Breadth was -58%.  New highs dropped down to 114.  New lows also dropped and came in at 43.  Still elevated.  Volume was lower then Friday, but still running well above average of recent months.  Trading activity has picked up for several days now.  That seems meaningful with the market stalled.


The futures just drifted lower through the day.  No follow through to Friday's buying panic at all.


The red count shot up today and for the first time since Aug. we have a negative crossover.


Both the 10 DMA lines and the McClellan oscillator are negative.


Both the short and intermediate bull pressure lines are negative.  It appears the long term line has peaked.

The short term market internals are all negative now.  Either the bulls show up and start a new leg up or the market will consolidate/pullback here.  It seems to me most people are talking about a melt up into year end so I have to think the odds are higher for sideways to down price action.  I also believe there is very little hedging going on.  If a catalyst comes along that causes some real selling pressure we could see a bigger then 3% pullback.  We had some intense selling pressure on 10/25, but no further sign of it.  FED meeting on Wednesday and AAPL earnings on Thurs. after the close could hold the market up.  After that maybe there is some profit taking.  Still watching for a close below SPX 2565 to indicate Friday was likely a short term buying climax.

After the Feb. 2016 low there seemed to be an underlying bid to the market all the time.  There was a bit of an overhang of sellers going into the election, but the bid was still there which prevented any big pullbacks.  For the last week the NYSE tick behavior appears to be changing.  I think the overhang of sellers is back and the underlying bid seems weaker.  This may be a temporary phenomenon, but I wanted to mention it just in case the market is changing its mood.  We may have hit levels where profit takers are becoming slightly more aggressive while buyers are becoming less so. 

Interesting video of ECRI chief talking about global economic growth peaking and about to slow down based on their long lead indexes.  I remember ECRI saying in the summer of 2016 their long lead indexes pointed to a global economic upturn and they were dead right.  They might be correct again.  Notice in the video he mentions this might be as good as it is going to get.  Key words for a bull market top.  I will start paying attention to the economic data again just in case.  Profits Growth Slows with Economy

Bob

Friday, October 27, 2017

Daily update 10/27 Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit

I heard the words buying panic and euphoria mentioned on TV today.  The buying panic was certainly real.  Stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and the dollar were all up.  Flight to everything!  The only asset that did not go up today was cash.  That does not happen very often.


We had three volume days this week bigger then option expiration last week.  Usually expiration day is the biggest volume day of the month.  A big volume day at new highs always runs the risk of being a buying climax.  A close below today's low would signal that.  Breadth was +58%.  New highs were down a bit from yesterday at 175.  New lows remain extremely elevated for new highs.


As usual when the futures got below the 20 SMA, but failed to confirm a break in short order they rallied again.  They made a slight new high today, but closed exactly on the prior overnight high.


Curiously the green count slipped a bit today.  It remains below 50.  There is either a quadruple negative divergence or plenty of room to go on the upside before we get overbought.  Which will it be?

I am not sure exactly what to make of this situation.  There are plenty of things slightly out of kilter technically.  The high number of new lows is probably the most troubling.  I looked in the list and there is a lot of different sectors represented.  I can't rule out the possibility of an important top developing.  Sorry.  In the short term a close below today's low (2566) in the next several days would indicate today was probably a buying climax.  That could bring out a few sellers.

Interesting article from ECRI.  Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit  The economy does not appear to be as strong as it was at the beginning of prior GRC downturns since 2009 to me.  With the FED in tightening mode it is hard to say what happens if the economy slows.  I think the elevated number of new lows could be an indication the economy could slow.  I will start keeping a closer eye on the economic data to see how it develops.  I realize the pundits are crowing about two quarters in a row of 3% growth, but the average error is 1.3% the first three estimates.  That is the average error.  Obviously it is off way more then that sometimes.  We won't know what the true value is for over a year.  That is why I say it is useless data in real time.  While ECRI had some trouble with the mid 2011 to late 2012 period their forecasts before and after that time have been very good.  They could very well be right again.


Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Daily update 10/26 Is This The Source Of America's Growing Discord?

It was a draw.


SPX opened higher this morning, but couldn't make anymore upside progress.  The breadth was barely positive at the end of the day.  New highs were up a bit to 181.  New lows dropped to 80, but remain very elevated.  Volume was above average again indicating plenty of participation.  How do we classify the day?  SPX ended the day higher, but below the open.  Some would say the bulls won and some would say the bears did.  I think we have more of a two sided market then we have been having for quite some time.  How long that lasts though is anybody's guess. 


The futures are just hanging around below the 20 SMA.  They have not confirmed a break yet.  That often means they won't.  On an hourly chart it is easy to see they have had falling resistance levels over the last couple of days.  It started at 2569 then moved down to 2566.  Today it was 2564.  If they can get above 2564 and stay there tomorrow we could resume the rally. 


The green count picked up today, but remains below 50.  The red count barely changed at all.  Last night I mentioned the bulls sometimes show up when the lines come together like they did yesterday.  While they showed up today, they did not give us a clear sign they are ready to resume the upside.


The intermediate lines have now crossed negative along with the short term lines.  The long term lines appear to have peaked.  Buying pressure has waned a bit, but selling pressure is still muted.

There were a lot of tech earnings after the close.  QQQ is up considerably so they must have been well received.  So far the futures do not seem to be impressed.  However, I noticed that happening one time before and by morning the futures were up significantly.  I don't know if that will repeat this time, but it could.  It will be interesting to see if investors buy or sell the strength in the morning assuming QQQ gaps up considerably. 

The dollar index closed strongly and above the key 94 level.  If it can stay there it could be on its way higher.  Interest rates appear to be breaking out on the upside as well.  If those moves keep going interest rate sensitive stocks will probably come under some pressure.  If rates rise too quickly it will likely be quite negative for stocks.  A slow rise might be ok.

The ECB cut their QE program in half starting Jan. as expected.  The BOJ is scheduled to have a monetary policy announcement on the 30th.  I heard some talk recently about them cutting back on their buying program.  It is important to note there will be much less liquidity around next year.  Stocks might continue higher, but there could be more volatility. 

I am curious to see how tomorrow plays out.  The futures are waiting for a catalyst to head higher or lower.  Yesterday saw intense intraday selling pressure unlike anything we have seen this year.  There was enough selling into strength today to keep the bulls at bay.  All this is leaving us in limbo just a bit.  Maybe the market is getting ready for a pullback, but it isn't clear that is the case yet.  The bears are going to have to show more strength in the days ahead to make that happen.

I think this article expresses my thoughts on social media much better then I could ever write them.  Is This The Source Of America's Growing Discord? 

Bob

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Daily update 10/25 Three charts that prove the bull market has more room to run: Bank of America technician

Selling pressure.  Well at least for part of the day.


I have no idea what sparked the selling.  The futures gapped down a few points, but nothing dramatic.  The sellers just started in.  The market picked up steam when it dropped below the key reversal day low.  Once SPX got down below the 10/19 low buyers stepped in to save the day.  Breadth was -72% so the selling was broad based.  New highs dropped way down to 122.  New lows spiked up to 104.  A lot of participation today.  Look at the volume.  


The futures dipped all the way below the lower channel line before bouncing.  They remain below the 20 SMA, but technically have not confirmed a break yet.


The counts came together today.  Sometimes on a cross like this the bulls show up and drive the market higher again.  The bears need another down day to get a good negative cross.

SPX bounced quite a ways off its low.  Sometimes that is bullish and sometimes it isn't.  SPX closed below the low of the key reversal day thus confirming its bearish message in theory.  In practice we need to see if the bulls continue today's bounce back or not.  The ECB meets tomorrow and the expectation seems to be they will cut the amount of QE buying every month in half while extending its duration.  Will the market react in a big way or not?  Sometimes central banks do exactly what everybody expects and the market still gets a bout of volatility.  It does not always make the move in the direction one would expect though.  Today's selling might have been some people hedging just in case there is a negative reaction.  Before prognosticating too much about where we are headed I think it is best to see what the ECB does and how the market reacts to it.  Closing below today's low would be a pretty big negative sign though. 

The NYSE ticks showed selling pressure we have not seen since 9/9/16 and 9/13/16.  Not even the moves around the election itself or brexit earlier that year showed that much selling pressure.  The gap down on 9/9/16 became resistance for the next several weeks and it was Nov. before the market finally bottomed.  Despite the bounce today from the lows it is certainly possible the market changed today and there will be further downside to come.  

Here is an article for the bulls.  Three charts that prove the bull market has more room to run: Bank of America technician  I found the title interesting.  I have been looking at charts for nearly 20 years now.  I can say with absolutely certainty that charts don't "prove" anything.  They can suggest something, but as anybody that has traded for any length of time knows anything can happen.  I think this is just another example of how confident bulls are at this moment in time.  I think they are even more sure of the upside then they were in 2000.  Back then there were some doubters that were brave enough to get on TV now and then.  Not so much lately.

Bob

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Daily update 10/24

A bit of a rebound.


The market gapped up and after pulling back a little it rallied some mid day.  There was some afternoon selling though.  Interesting volume.  CAT and MMM had huge volume today on earnings.  That helped the Dow a lot more then the other indexes.  Breadth was +51%.  New highs were stable at 201.  New lows remain very elevated at 52. 


The futures bounced a little of the 20 MA, but not with any vigor.  There is still a risk they fall through.


Both counts picked up a bit today.  The green count is still above the red line.

It is normal for a bounce after a key reversal down in SPX.  It is really what happens going forward that counts.  A close below yesterday's low (2564) could bring out some sellers.  If SPX gets convincingly up through 2575 we could continue higher.

Politics may be heating up.  Some GOP senators seem to be taking Trump on.  Personally I think the market has discounted some tax cuts already.  I hear a lot of people say otherwise, but nearly everybody interviewed expects they will get done.  If that is the case how can the market not have already priced them in.  I think that is the key reason we are here.  I have had my doubts since about March that they would get anything serious done in D.C. this year.  If they squabble enough to make others start to doubt they will get tax cuts done the market might sell off some.  All I have heard out of D.C. this year is a bunch of empty promises and nothing concrete.  I don't really understand how so many people are so sure they will get something done.  They say tax cuts unites all republicans which I am not sure is true.  I suspect many hard working folks don't care if businesses get a tax cut.  From what I have seen so far the changes for individuals do not seem to benefit the middle class much if at all.  They definitely benefit the more wealthy among us.  That could be a hard sell.  Driving up the deficit is very divisive.  Tax cuts that greatly increase the deficit will also be a hard sell.  I don't have any idea how this will work out, but I think it could have a big effect on stock prices.

Bob

Monday, October 23, 2017

Daily update 10/23 MARKET FRAGILITY - HOW TO POSITION FOR TWIN BUBBLES BUST

Interesting day.  It looks like the 2575 yearly R2 pivot point resistance held for one day at least.  Today was day 242 without as much as a 3% pullback in SPX.  That beats the old record of 241 days set back in the mid 90s.  This period of time will forever be in the record books.  It is setting low volatility records right and left these days.


The market gapped up to new highs, but started drifting lower immediately.  By days end it had dropped below Friday's low making today a key reversal day.  Breadth was -62%.  New highs dropped off a bit to 200.  New lows picked up considerably to 50.  That is extremely elevated considering both SPX and COMPX were at a new high at the open.  While key reversal days are not often key this one could be since the market is so extended.  We also have been in a slow creep up pattern for quite some time and those are prone to sharp reversals.  It would not be surprising to see the long awaited 3% or more pullback start from here.



The futures went to new highs overnight, but could not hold them.  They ended the day still above the 20 SMA.  Will they bounce or break the MA?


The green count dropped back below 50 again.  I think the triple negative divergence scenario mentioned on Friday might be the more likely case.  It could finally be pullback time.

Today they had a market strategist on CNBC saying everything is perfect and the market can only go up from here.  We have heard this other times recently.  Bulls see no need to hedge their bets and bears cannot be found.  I keep seeing the words melt up over and over again.  If this is not an ideal sentiment condition for a significant top I don't know what is.  What could cause the market to fall?  I heard an interesting statement from a trader at the NYSE during an interview this afternoon.  He said people around here were tired of this rally.  I can understand that.  This low volatility is pretty tough on big traders.  If some of those guys get together they have enough money to push the market down a little and see what shakes out.  Since the August low the market has mostly floated up on a complete lack of sellers.  The volume has been light and the breadth has been mediocre.  If some actual selling pressure showed up I don't think we know exactly what would happen.  The VIX has been slowly creeping up since 10/5 while SPX has continued higher.  That type of divergence has preceded some important tops in the past.  A VIX divergence is not the most reliable signal in the world.  However, we have a number of things going on that might give it better odds this time.

The current bull case can be summed up by saying there is nothing that can go wrong.  If you are interested in what might go wrong.  You might want to peruse this article sent to me by a reader.  Just keep in mind it is a sales pitch for their bearish investment funds.  However, there are a lot of interesting charts and data.  MARKET FRAGILITY - HOW TO POSITION FOR TWIN BUBBLES BUST

Bob

Friday, October 20, 2017

Daily update 10/20


The passage of the budget bill in the Senate last night provided some buying enthusiasm. 


I meant to mention the other day the next target up was 2575.  That is the R2 yearly floor trader pivot point calculated on the values from 2016.  R3 in case we keep going up is 2744.  Sometimes they provide resistance.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs were 247.  New lows picked up a bit more to 39.  That is really elevated for a strong day at new highs that gapped up to begin with.


The futures broke out above the upper channel line again.  However, the market is pretty extended so I don't know if they will stay out there long.  Coming right back in on Monday would suggest a trip back to the lower line is likely.


The green count picked up a bit today and is above 50.  One interpretation of this pattern is a triple negative divergence.  The other is we are not overbought on this indicator so there is more room for the market to run.  Time will tell which is correct.

SPX hit a potential resistance point and stopped.  What if any affect that will have remains to be seen.  This market has done a lot of consolidating and going higher as opposed to pulling back.  It could always do that again.  On the other hand, it has been a long time since we had any pullback and nearly everybody seems to expect the market to continue higher.  What will happen?



Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Daily update 10/19 Yacht Life

Now we are really rocking.  SPX was up .84 points today.


After a bit of selling into the gap down this morning dip buyers showed up and sent SPX back to green by the close.  A miracle save from that horrible 9 point downside gap.  Breadth was slightly negative.  New highs slipped back to 116.  New lows picked up slightly to 32. 


Overnight the futures dipped all the way below the lower channel line.  Then bounced right back during the day.


The green count turned up slightly, but remains below 50.

Will today's recovery embolden bulls to push prices higher from here?  Why in the world did I ask that question?  I certainly don't know the answer.  Tomorrow is option expiration which is often choppy these days.  It is possible today's action was about expiration and nothing more.  The gap down was not really big enough to cause any panic so the fact the market rallied all day does not really tell us a lot.  Maybe I should just start predicting that SPX will be up 1.5 points the next day.  Lately I would be pretty close.  The slow creep up pattern continues for now.  Still watching 2540 on the downside.

While pondering the sentiment situation I got to thinking about this ETrade commercial I have been seeing for a while.

Yacht Life

If the dumbest guy in your high school can make a fortune in the market you can too.  I remember seeing similar commercials in late 1999 and early 2000.   Making money in the market is easy anybody can do it.  Come on in the water is fine.  History shows that kind of prevailing thinking is always followed by misery.  I do not expect this time will be different.  The only question is when.  Too bad that is such a difficult question to answer in a bubble.  Speaking of bubbles check out bitcoin.


That looks like quite the run up.  Keep in mind bitcoin has 0 intrinsic value (even less then a tulip bulb).  I have been contemplating that a bitcoin crash might indicate the current bubble mentality that has gripped the world has come to an end.  Just a thought.  The stampede for the exit should be pretty interesting to watch.

Bob 

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Daily update 10/18 Dow tops 23,000 for first time as stock market rally gains speed

SPX tacked on another 1.9 points.  Amazing.  It can't go up much slower then that.


Intraday range on SPX was less then 5 points.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs increased a bit to 161.  New lows remain elevated at 29. 


The futures tried to break out the upper channel line twice today, but failed.  I am still amazed we have not had one test below the 20 SMA since back in Sept.  That is an unusually long time. 


The green count slipped a bit more today.

The futures were at the overnight high as the market opened.  The bulls could have gotten their thrust up day, but failed to show up.  The slow creep up pattern continues.  Still watching 2540.  Although it is getting pretty hard to keep my eyes open!

This is the article on the front page of the USA Today money section.  Dow tops 23,000 for first time as stock market rally gains speed  It mentions five things that have driven this rally.  No mention of what could go wrong.  Given that the market is barely moving up I find the part of the headline about the rally gaining speed interesting.  I guess there must be different definitions for the word "gains".  If I was writing a headline I would have said "Dow tops 23,000 for the first time as stock market rally loses momentum".  But I guess that title while truthful would not get many clicks.  There was no mention in the article about what might go wrong in the future.  The sky is blue and the market is headed to the moon.

Bob

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Daily update 10/17 Confidence is high in a rising stock market.

The Dow reached 23000 today and SPX closed at yet another new high by a 1.72 points.  Wow.  Hard to believe it could gain that much in one single day.


Despite new highs in COMPX, SPX and the Dow, R2000 closed down (turning its short term trend down).  Breadth was -55%.  Not good at all.  New highs dropped way down to 134.  New lows remain elevated at 28.


The futures remain between the 20 SMA and the upper channel line.  This is a bit odd to go this long without penetrating the 20 SMA on the downside at least a little.


Despite the new high the green count slipped a bit more.


The 10 DMA breadth lines (2nd panel) are almost on top of each other.  Another down day would give them a negative cross.  The McClellan oscillator is already negative.  The internals continue to weaken.

Two days in a row SPX closed at new highs on negative breadth.  Today being considerably more negative then yesterday.  That is a rare thing to do.  I don't remember the last time it happened off the top of my head.  The market has gotten extremely tired now.  In this condition the bulls need another upside thrust bar to keep the rally going in the next day or so.  Otherwise we are highly likely to start a pullback. 

As far as I can tell  nearly everybody has given up on an Oct. pullback and I have not seen anything about year 7 in a while either.  The talk now seems to be about a market melt up from here.  I believe the market has been melting up since Feb. 2016.  While a further melt up from here is certainly possible I wonder if it is likely with so many people expecting it.  As the sentiment chart below shows that survey has never had more people bullish over the next 12 months.  It is pretty rare the market does what everybody expects.  With the weak technical condition and bears waving the white flag a pullback rather then another upside thrust seems like the higher odds thing to happen.  If we do get a pullback it is hard to say what to expect.  The market likes to fool the most people it can whenever it gets the chance.  From that standpoint what better time for a bull market to end then when most people are expecting a melt up?  I keep hearing every day on TV how there is nothing out there (except possibly a problem with NK) that could derail the market.  This reminds me of Bob Farrell's rule number 9. 

"When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen"

Experts and forecasts all seem to agree at the moment.  I don't think this is the time to be complacent about the market.  If it starts down soon pay attention.  Maybe we get yet another buying op, but it could be more serious then that.  If we get another upside thrust then the bulls should be good for a while yet.

Interesting chart from the Michigan consumer sentiment data.

Confidence stocks will continue up over the next 12 months is the highest in the last 15 years.  The last two times it was this high we had a bear market (2007) and a top that lasted over a year (2015).  The tiny intraday ranges suggest a top is close in time.  Sentiment suggests it could be a significant top.

Bob

Monday, October 16, 2017

Daily update 10/16

Do you feel richer tonight?  SPX closed at a new high.  A whopping 5.5 points above the 10/5 high.  Its really flying up now.


Is there anything left to say?  Breadth was slightly negative.  New highs dropped a bit to 199.  New lows remain elevated at 26. 


The futures seem to be contained between the 20 SMA and the upper channel line.  Not much range there.


The green count remains below 50.


The short term pull pressure lines went negative today.  The intermediate and long term lines remain green.

This looks like the typical slow creep up pattern.  Short term market internals are weakening.  There is no telling how long it will last, but it usually ends with a big down day.  Big being relative to prevailing volatility.  We are currently experiencing all time low volatility so big probably won't be all that much.  With 7 point intraday ranges on SPX we could see a triple of volatility and still be within what we used to call normal volatility.  Still watching 2540 on the downside.

Bob

Friday, October 13, 2017

Daily udpate 10/13 How The Popularity Of Passive Investing Precludes A Pleasant Outcome

Another intraday new high, but not a new high close.


The bulls pushed SPX up to a new intraday high, but failed to find buyers.  After waffling around mid day the market had some afternoon selling again.  Nothing too serious, more like mild profit taking.  Breadth was +55%.  New highs picked up considerably to 261.  New lows dropped a bit to 27, but remain elevated with SPX at the highs.


The futures tried to push higher, but failed to find buyers.  They remain in consolidation mode.


The green count slipped below 50 so the bulls are losing momentum.

While SPX set a new intraday high today it was only 5 points above the 10/5 high.  That ain't much for 6 trading days at all time highs.  The air is clearly a little thin up here at the moment.  The market looks in need of a pullback.  I had to laugh today when they showed a bear saying he was waving the white towel.  Mind you he was not a major bear, just one hoping for a pullback this fall because of high valuations.  I do not know why one would wave the white flag today.  The narrow intraday ranges we have seen lately have always been one of the best indicators a pullback was coming.  October isn't over yet.  I guess we will see.  Still watching SPX 2540 on the downside.

Interesting article on the move to passive investing.  How The Popularity Of Passive Investing Precludes A Pleasant Outcome


Have a great weekend.

Bob

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Daily update 10/12

Hmm.


SPX gapped down a bit this morning.  It found its low pretty quickly and rallied to .09 above yesterday's high.  There it stopped in its tracks and started waffling around.  About 1 PM TLT started rallying and proceeded higher all afternoon.  Around 2:30 PM SPX started down and made a new low for the day before bouncing a bit into the close.  I did not hear mention of any news that could be tied to the moves exactly.  With bonds moving first it suggests a move to safety.  Maybe some stock guys noticed the move in bonds and started selling stocks.  I don't know if the move was significant for sure or not, but notice the big increase in volume today.  It may be nothing, but it could be a sign of some more serious profit taking then what we have seen in a while.  That would more likely to be true if there was no news that caused the activity.  If it was caused by valuation at 2550 it could signal the long awaited pullback might be ready to start.  Breadth was dead even.  New highs picked up a bit to 197.  New lows also picked up to 31 and are clearly elevated since SPX made a new intraday high.


The futures finally closed inside the channel this morning confirming what we already knew that the accelerated up move was over.  They have traded sideways long enough for the channel to catch up to price rather then pulling back to get inside.  That is a bit unusual.  Very little selling pressure up til now.


The green count slipped a bit today, but remains above 50.  The bulls lack enthusiasm, but so far the bears have not made an attempt to take control.


The short and intermediate bull pressure lines are showing a waning of buying pressure this month.  The long term line looks strong based on the activity shown in this chart, but the .54 level is not particularly strong and could reverse to negative fairly quickly if any real selling pressure showed up.

The other day we saw what looked like a clear rotation from stocks to bonds.  Today saw buying in bonds and selling in stocks, but the timing makes it unclear it was specifically rotation.  It still could be though.  We can't rule out a big fund doing the rotation.  Sometimes these moves start with a well known investor and others figure that out and just follow along.  It is possible somebody decided 2550 was a good place to take some money off the table.  We need to keep an eye out here for the next several days to see if similar activity continues to happen.  It could turn out this is an important change for the market, but too early to tell.  It is possible this action will turn out to be insignificant and could already be over with.  I will keep my eyes open and we will see what happens.  In the mean time I still have my eye on the 2540 level.  If we do get a pullback soon it will be important to see what happens to QQQ.

Bob

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.