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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, September 8, 2017

Daily update 9/8

Clear lack of buying enthusiasm again.


SPX tested yesterday's low and found support.  The ensuing bounce fell short of yesterday's high.  The sellers came out a bit in the afternoon as SPX dribbled down into the close.  Breadth was -52%.  New highs were stable at 124.  New lows increased again to 64.  That is way elevated and suggests the rally may be close to rolling over.


The last few bars on the futures closed below the 20 SMA, but have not confirmed a break.  Both buyers and sellers are active.  Which side will ultimately win?


The green count slipped a bit, but remains above 50. 

The market has lacked buying enthusiasm since the NK missile launch across Japan.  So far there has been enough dip buyers to absorb the selling volume and hold the market up.  However, I don't think we can be assured that will continue if the market does not move higher fairly soon.  A close of SPX back below the 50 DMA will probably be a good sign the rally attempt has failed. 


At this point I believe Irma will pass west of my house.  That will put me in the rainy and windiest side of the storm.  On the current track it is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it gets up here.  I have not lost power from a tropical storm since 2004 so my luck may run out this time.  I live on a line with only a few customers so it won't be a high priority for FPL to get it back on.  If I lose power it could be out for many days.  I have a generator and plenty of supplies so we will be fine.  However, I won't be updating the blog until power is back on.  If I get lucky again I will do the updates as normal.  One thing I know for sure is that I will get plenty of exercise next week cleaning up the yard!

Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.