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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Daily update 9/28

SPX makes a new high close.

SPX did not get above yesterday's high, but a new high close is a new high close.  QQQ ended the day slightly in the red though.  Breadth was +52%.  New highs slipped down to 153.  Not much excitement in the internals to go with that new high close.  That is more like the slow creep up pattern.

The futures stayed above the 20 SMA today.  However, they still have not confirmed an upside break.  It is generally much better to bust through the MA and take off.  A failure to get confirmation of the break in the first few bars often leads to a reversal.  That just happened on the downside.  The futures spent days below the 20 SMA, but never confirmed a break down.  The bulls would like to see a confirmation tomorrow.  A failure to do that would start to increase the odds the market will reverse again.

The green count actually slipped a bit today.  This is not a very inspiring chart for bulls. 

Today was a rather wimpy new high close.  I just don't believe we will go significantly higher without QQQ breaking out with the rest of the market.  Can the bulls pull off another upside thrust from here?

Lately it has all been happy talk on CNBC.  I can't remember the last time they interviewed anybody even the tiniest bit bearish.  Josh Brown has been busy telling us how perfect everything is.  There is the problem if there is one.  With the perception being that everything is great I can't imagine many money managers wasting money on hedges.  Should something come along that causes some real selling pressure the market could fall more then most are expecting.  If only I had a working crystal ball that could tell me if such a catalyst was going to come along.  They usually do in a year 7.  If nothing happens in Oct. then the market is probably home free until next spring.


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