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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Daily update 9/13 The Terrible Facts about Real Earnings of Men

Slow creep towards 2500.


SPX closed at a new high thanks to a last minute run up into the close.  Earlier in the day it had climbed above yesterday's high multiple times and sold off a bit.  Nothing dramatic though.  There appears to be a slight bit of resistance here.  Breadth was just barely positive.  In what may be an indication of trouble ahead new highs dropped down to 114.  It looks like we are losing momentum not gaining it.


The futures have started to trade sideways a bit.  They are down a couple of points after hours.  They opened down 3.75 points this morning.  The bulls rushed in to buy those fabulous discounted prices.


The green count rose strongly today and is in the area of overbought.  Notice the sizable divergence in the intermediate indicator.  That will be important if the market turns back down on this retest.  Often in a strong bull market that indicator going below 50 leads to a strong rally to new highs and beyond.  When SPX does not do that we usually get a pullback to the 200 DMA.

This does not look like a market that is launching higher to me.  Another strong thrust day through 2500 could change my mind.  If SPX falls back through the 20 DMA (2457) I think the odds go up we are headed down to the 200 (2372).  A close back below 2490 might be an early warning sign.  That would indicate a potential break out failure.

I commented a while back about how boys in my generation were able to graduate from high school find jobs, buy houses, and raise a family.  Many of my class mates did not attend college.  That is extremely difficult to do today.  This is a good article on what has transpired since the 70s.
The Terrible Facts about Real Earnings of Men


Globalization has worked to hold down men's salaries in this country while inflation has eaten away at their purchasing power.  This is why so many young people are living at home even as they reach their 30s.  This is happening throughout many countries in the western world.  Hence the rise of what the globalists (and they are scared to death of) call populism.  It certainly appears that people have a legitimate complaint with the way things have gone for the last four decades.  We have already seen the beginnings of political turmoil caused by this.  I think we can expect that to get worse in the future which may cause some turbulence in markets eventually.  Somehow we have to get wages and living expenses back in line and that won't be an easy thing to do. 

Last night part way through the sending of the subscriber emails I started getting an error that said I was sending too many emails.  I have no idea what went wrong.  At the moment gmail won't let me send an email.  It is suppose to reset after 24 hours and it might.  I don't know if there is going to be a problem in the future yet or not.  If you don't get any emails from me it is because I am having a problem with gmail not because I am ignoring you.  It is not like I can send out a message saying I am having trouble!  .

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.