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Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Daily update 8/16

What a disaster.  I am not talking about the stock market.

SPX stuck its head above the 20 SMA and looked like it might close there.  In the middle of the day news about disbanding the president's business advisory groups sparked a little bit of selling.  That knocked SPX back below the 20, but still positive on the day.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs picked up to 80 while new lows dropped back to 95.  Still not good numbers.

 The futures are struggling around the 50 SMA.  As long as they hold above the 20 SMA they should get through the 50 eventually.

The red count fell and the green count picked up today, but they are still negatively crossed.  The more important thing to watch is the intermediate indicator.  It is getting awful close to 50.  Because of its longer term nature it is possible it keeps falling even if the market rallies.  Downside risk goes up considerably when it is below 50. 

Bob Pisani was talking to traders today about a premium in the market based on the Trump agenda.  He said most people believed there is one.  The general consensus seemed to be stocks were 5-10% higher based on the agenda.  I have commented a few times on the dysfunction in D.C. and that I am surprised the market has ignored it.  President of the U.S. is a very difficult job.  Constantly sticking your foot in your mouth only makes it harder.  Every misstep makes it harder to get things done.  I have been doubting for quite some time that any of it will ever get passed.  Some day the market may get impatient and some of that Trump agenda premium may come out.

In the short term the bounce is still alive even though it is weak.  A test of the highs still seems likely.  To get much past the current highs the bulls are going to have to show more enthusiasm.  There have been plenty of bounces that started off weak and got some legs so this one might also.  I will be watching that 20 SMA on the futures charts for a sign the bounce is rolling over.

Rant on:
Once upon a time there was a news media that wanted to inform the public.  They were a watchdog on the government.  They were careful in fact checking.  Anybody remember the old saying check the facts, check the facts and check the facts again.  The move to a digital medium has seriously changed the world.  The media found out the best way to get people engaged enough in the news to click is to either scare them or make them angry.  Keep that in mind as you absorb the news today.  They are all out to make you angry and scared.  Facts are irrelevant.  The consequence of this method of operation is catastrophic to our democracy.  Many people have a short fuse and/or rush to judgement on everything.  Many people just skim headlines.  I have had many conversations with my wife about how the content of so many articles are completely different then the headline.  This is simply manipulation.  For years I noticed it was happening, but I did not really understand why.  I finally came to the realization it is a quest for clicks.  Our democracy is not going to survive if this situation is allowed to continue.  People deserve to know the facts and form their own opinions.  The first step to fixing any problem is to acknowledge the problem exists.  We need the majority of people in this country to realize they are being manipulated and fight back.  This is not going to be an easy task.  Are you going to let the media manipulate your thoughts and feelings or are you going to demand the facts and make up your own mind?
Rant off:


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.