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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, July 3, 2017

Daily update 7/3

More tech selling.


SPX tested above the 20 SMA this morning, but sold off in the afternoon.  Breadth was +68%. 


The futures attempted to get above the 50 SMA, but turned back. 


The green count crossed above the red, but remains below 50.  Still inconclusive.


More tech selling as QQQ turned down from its gap up.  This is below the neck line of the H&S top.  If it does not rebound this week it could be in some trouble.

The market started with a sizable gap up and a few buyers were nibbling away until tech sold off again.  At first SPX held on, but as the selling in tech got more intense it buckled and gave back most of the gains for the day.  To be honest the selling surprised me because everybody knew it would be a light volume day as many people are off for the holiday.  Unless one had some urgency to sell why would a money manager sell today?  Why not wait for more liquidity later in the week?  Did they get the needed selling done? 

Last week there were some very short term positive divergences that made me think we would see a bounce that would take SPX to a new high while QQQ fell short.  SPX started to bounce, but QQQ did not play along.  That scenario could still play.  It would be even more likely that QQQ fails to make a new high now.  However, I think QQQ has to rally at least some to allow SPX to make the climb.  I don't have any idea if that will happen or not.  If QQQ continues down from here I think it will be pretty hard for SPX to make any real upside progress. 

Have a great 4th.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.