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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, July 24, 2017

Daily update 7/24 Don’t Buy the Numbers Game Hype

Another sleepy summer day.


SPX had a whopping 7 point intraday range.  Breadth was -54%.  New highs dropped to 149.  New lows increased to 23.  Getting in the elevated range again with SPX this close to the highs.  The buying was concentrated in tech (except SOX) and financials. 


The futures continued the consolidation that started Friday morning.  So far they are holding above the 20 SMA.  No selling pressure yet.


The green count slipped a bit more today, but remains above 50.

SPX is pausing due to a lack of buyers at the moment.  There has been no selling pressure to speak of.  Tomorrow is FED day and no action is expected.  Maybe that event will spark a little more buying.  The low VIX could be holding buyers back.  On CNBC today they were talking about the lack of upside in stocks after announcing beats while companies that miss were getting hit hard. While NFLX has done well after earnings there are not many other big names doing that.  GOOG is down after earnings tonight.  The Dow has been held back several days by stocks in that index down on earnings.  The good earnings we are seeing have apparently been priced in already.  That sounds like a tired market to me.

Interesting thoughts on the low volatility theory.  It is an odd title based on what the article is about.  Don’t Buy the Numbers Game Hype

My question is simply this.  What happens when all these trend following algorithms and robo advisers start selling?  I don't know when it will happen, but I am quite certain someday it will.  I do not believe that recessions have been permanently eliminated. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.