If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Daily update 7/12 Axel Merk: What's Next For The Dollar, Stocks, Bonds, & Gold?

Hawkish Yellen causes a buying panic.  By hawkish I mean insistence on balance sheet reduction.  No mater how you sugar coat it this is quantitative tightening.  At these low rates it might even have more of an effect then another rate hike.


SPX gapped up and headed somewhat higher.  Notice it stopped at the red resistance line from the last FED rate hike.  It hit that early in the day and could not stay above it.  Breadth was +70%.  New highs increased to 189.  New lows dropped way down to 16. 


The futures broke out above the 100 SMA, but are now at the upper channel line.  Will they be able to stay out there and keep pushing higher or fall back in?


I had to do a double take when I looked at this chart.  The green count actually fell today along with the red count.  That seems odd.  Still non committal on this chart.

I think what got the market excited was a comment by Yellen as follows:

"Because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance,"

That caused a drop in the Dec. rate hike odds and some short covering.  The bulk of today's move happened in the first 30 minutes.  Forward progress after that was really tough to come by.  The VIX closed at 10.30.  SPX has not made a new high and yet the VIX is already extremely low.  There may be enough juice left to make a new high, but I doubt we get much further.

Here are some thoughts from Axel Merk on what balance sheet reduction might mean for markets.
Axel Merk: What's Next For The Dollar, Stocks, Bonds, & Gold?


Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.