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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Daily update 6/8

SPX is still waiting.


Even though SPX went nowhere the volume picked up considerably.  That might be a sign of distribution in big caps.  The breadth was +54%, but that was helped by buying in small caps.  New highs were up a bit to 139 while new lows decreased slightly to 57.



The futures remain in the tight range noted yesterday on a closing basis.  The 20 SMA is moving up to either send price higher or allow for a break down.


As SPX languished today R2000 had a very strong day.  It is now getting up near the prior highs.  Will it keep pushing or fail to break out?


XLF also caught a bid today.  At the moment this is a possible head and shoulders pattern.  Will XLF progress toward the highs or end up breaking the neckline?

The green and red counts barely budged today. 

I think there was some moving of money from the big cap high flyers to the lagging small caps and financials starting yesterday afternoon.  I view this as a rotation from one bubble to another regarding the money going into small caps.  The real question is whether that move will last long enough to get those two groups to new highs.  I kind of doubt it, but that remains to be seen.  SPX seems to be waiting for a catalyst for the next little move.

I am getting a bit queasy about the stuff going on in D.C.  So far the market seems to be ignoring it.  That may change some day.  Anybody remember Watergate?  After the initial arrest in June 1972 the market kept on rising until Jan. 73.  Then Nixon aides G. Gordon Liddy and James W. McCord Jr. were convicted of conspiracy, burglary and wiretapping.  SPX proceeded to plummet 50% into the fall of 74.  I remember the very somber mood in the country as we watched congressional hearings day after day.  At the moment there does not seem to be any evidence of criminal action on the part of the president (his handling of Comey appears to be stupid not criminal).  However, I am not so sure that is true of some of the people around him.  There is no telling what all this investigation is going to turn up.  Nixon got into trouble because he tried to cover up the initial incident.  The attempted bugging of the Watergate offices of the DNC was much less serious when compared to what improper actions with Russia could turn out to be.  This situation could be totally inconsequential to the market or a cat 5 hurricane.  The trouble is we have no idea what the outcome will be at this point.  I think we have to pay close attention until the investigation is closed.  Something could come along that ends up sending the market into a tizzy. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.