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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Daily update 6/28

Buying panic.


I added an arrow for the last rate hike since the pattern has shown those days to be resistance.  The red horizontal line represents that day's high.  SPX came almost up to that line today.  Breadth was a very strong 70%.  New highs were 109.  New lows increased to 21.  That was a bit of a surprise to me.  That is once again elevated this close to the highs. 


The futures came back inside the channel overnight thus ending the sell off for now.  They almost made it to the upper channel line already.  The last bounce fell a little short.


The counts came together today.  With both below 50 there really is nobody in control.


QQQ rallied strongly on good volume.  This is certainly a positive development.  However, the bulls need to follow through.  This could be a one day wonder.  Too soon to tell.

When the tech stocks first started selling off it became obvious that money was rotating into small caps, financials, and the transports.  Those sectors had been lagging a bit recently.  That rotation continued today with those three sectors leading the way.  Strength in those sectors would normally be a bullish thing I would think.  However, there are two problems here.  The first is the low VIX.  It traded down below 10 today and closed at 10.03.  The market has failed to progress higher with the VIX that low.  The other problem is the rotation out of tech.  In one form or another tech has led the market higher for four decades now.  If big money is truly rotating out of tech I think it will be extremely hard for the rest of the market to go higher.  It is one thing to run lagging sectors back up to old highs.  It is an entirely different manner to keep pushing them into new high ground. 

With the VIX already down to 10 I don't have any confidence the bulls will show up again to keep pushing higher.  It is time for quarter end window dressing.  With the rotations going on that could mean some running in place the next two days.


Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.