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Monday, June 19, 2017

Daily update 6/19

SPX makes a new high.

The expected bounce took SPX right back to the highs.  It stalled after crossing 2450 early this morning.  Breadth was +60%.  New highs expanded to 219.  New lows dropped considerably to 31, but that is still elevated for a new high in SPX.  Volume was pretty light. 

The futures tested above the upper channel line, but failed to close there.  They have been unable to gather enough momentum to stay above the upper channel since early June.  The last two times they touched the line they pulled back to the lower channel line.  Will it be different this time?

Surprisingly the green count barely moved up today.  It is actually below where it was two days ago.  Not exactly a sign of strength.  

QQQ did not eclipse last weeks high yet.  Volume dropped way off.  This is not clear to me this is any more then just a bounce yet.

COMPX and R2000 have a ways to go to get back to their highs.  This is the first time all year SPX made a new high and COMPX was not already there.  It had clearly been leading the market all year up to 6/9. That is a slight difference which may turn out to be nothing.  On the other hand, it could be a warning sign.  The bulls do not want to see SPX roll over before COMPX makes a new high.  If the tech sellers come back in force in the days ahead they could pull the entire market down.  While they bought tech stocks today I didn't see enough urgency to suggest the worst is over.  A little patience is needed here.


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