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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, May 15, 2017

Daily update 5/15 This Time is Not Different, Because This Time is Always Different

History was made.  SPX closed at a new high.  It only took 6 weeks to get 1.34 points above the 3/1 intraday high. 


While SPX closed at a new high that close was below the 5/9 intraday high.  Breadth was +71%.  A lot of stocks were up only a little as the indexes were not up very much.  New highs increased to 146, but that is well off the 331 we had on 3/1.  New lows came in at 37 which is elevated for a new closing high.
 

While SPX made a new intraday high the futures did not eclipse their 5/8 overnight high.


The green count picked up only a bit today and remains below the red line.  This would be good for bulls if the market continues up since we have a long ways to go to a short term overbought condition.  On the other hand, there is a big negative divergence that could mean SPX is not going to break out.

The bulls gave it another try today and managed a close above 2400.  That is about all they accomplished though.  Once SPX got above 2400 the buying dried up.  Rally chasers sat on their hands again.  I think they need to show up tomorrow if this market is really going to break out and move higher.  I don't see anything tonight that gives me any confidence that will happen.  While SPX made a new intraday and closing high it did not really break out.  The new intraday high was by a whopping .18 points.  The market has to do better then that to give me confidence the consolidation is over.  It would not surprise me if the sellers show up tomorrow and SPX closes back below 2400.  The bulls need a good thrust bar that closes well above the 3/1 high. Can they do that tomorrow?

This is a pretty interesting read.  This Time is Not Different, Because This Time is Always Different

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.