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Thursday, April 20, 2017

Daily update 4/20 Industrial Production (IP)

The bulls showed up right on cue.

SPX was above the 50 SMA for a while intraday, but fell back below it at the close.  Unlike the 4/17 up day the volume was strong today.  That suggests this bounce should have a better chance of continuing higher.  Breadth was +68%.  New highs expanded a bit to 119.

The green count picked up considerably today, but remains below 50.

Today looked like a good kick off day with strong breadth and volume.  The bulls still need to follow through.  We did not get a great selling climax into the low.  It is possible sellers show up again before SPX gets to the high.  The VIX closed just above 14 so there is not a lot of oversold fuel in the tank.  I am not exactly sure how earnings season is going.  I keep seeing stocks highlighted on CNBC beating expectations, but ending the day in the red.  With VIX already this low it will take people feeling positive about earnings to drive SPX to new highs and beyond.  I guess we will see what develops. 

Update:  SPX and COMPX turned their short term trend to neutral.  R200 turned up.

The latest IP reading has quite a jump to the upside.

This is a positive sign if it survives future revisions.  I also want to see IP continue to go up from here over the next few months.  I do not know if seasonal adjustments played a part in this or not.  Outside of the early snow storm in March the rest of the month temperatures were well above normal over most of the country.  Now that we are well into spring the weather will have much less impact. 


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