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Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Daily update 3/8 Problems with retail space

More hitting of the bids.

SPX is getting close to the 20 SMA.  Volume picked up a bit today.  Breadth was -71% which was considerably negative for the amount the market was down.  Some people are cashing out.  New highs were 42 and new lows were 73.  Not particularly good stats for the bulls.

The futures tried to bounce off the 50 SMA, but the rally was sold into.  They are still holding above the 50 for now.  Will they try the bounce again or fall through? 

The red count slightly crossed 50 for the first time since Dec.  Well below over sold levels though.

The short term red line is higher then all the green peaks since mid Dec.  This is the most selling pressure on this time frame since the Nov. low.  The intermediate lines now have a negative cross as well.  The long term lines are still positive, but are coming real close together.

In Daily update 2/22 I showed how the XOI index was lagging and how the COT data showed commercial hedgers heavily short oil.  I wrote "This looks to me that some time this year there is likely to be another oil price decline and it could be significant."  Well, oil broke down from a multi month trading range today.  USO was down over 5%.  It think that expected move down is starting.  I suspect the break down in oil was probably responsible for the sellers that showed up this afternoon.  How important an event is this?  I guess that would depend on whether the break down has anything to do with economic weakness or not.  As you know I don't believe the economy is anywhere near as strong as the pundits would have us believe.  It is definitely conceivable the breakdown was because of the economy.  However, it will take more time and data to know for sure. 

SPX turned its short term trend sideways today.

A friend sent me this interesting link on retail real estate (tnx Manny).  This one has a video worth watching.  It is a bit wordy in places that can be skipped over, but there are also some good charts.  Especially notice the one with the U.S. retail CRE compared to other countries.

I happen to run into a couple more links today to check out.
A Third Of All Shopping Malls Are Projected To Close As 'Space Available' Signs Go Up All Over America
“Retailers Are the New Oil & Gas,” Only Worse 


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.