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Friday, March 31, 2017

Daily update 3/31

Quarter end cross currents.

SPX closed slightly below the 20 SMA.  Breadth was +55%.  New highs were stable again at 84.  Both the bulls and bears took turns intraday.

The futures came back into the channel overnight.  They tried to break out again during the day, but sold off going into the close.  Breaking out of the channel and coming right back in often leads to a trip to the other channel line.  The futures have already done that multiple times this month.  Monday will be important.

The green count dropped back below 50.  Not a great sign for the bulls.

The action of the last trading day of the month is often reversed the next trading day.  The market looked like it may be rolling over here.  Since it was month end the action might have been meaningless.  Further weakness on Monday would not be a good sign for this bounce though.  Since the market has already bounced off the 50 DMA a roll over here is likely to go through that MA this time.  There could be a bit of an air pocket under there down to the 2280 area.  There should be good support there though.

All bull markets come to an end eventually.

The question is when will that penguin wake up the bear.

Have a great weekend.


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