SPX closed slightly below the 20 SMA. Breadth was -66%. New highs dropped a bit to 54. New lows increased to 69. That is not particularly good. I think the break down in oil has put a damper on buying enthusiasm. So far the selling pressure has been minimal, but I don't know if we can count on that continuing if oil keeps dropping. I don't know if there is a magic oil price that becomes a problem.
The futures closed below the 50 SMA, but have not confirmed a break yet.
The red count remains above 50.
The market seems to be losing some steam. We had a good bounce setup off the 20 DMA, but so far the bulls have failed to pounce on that. However, the bears have not been anxious to sell yet. That 3/1 big gap up is looking more and more like an exhaustion gap. We may have entered some kind of corrective phase. In Daily update 2/15 McClellan summation index I wrote about the oddly negative summation index with the indexes at new highs. That never cleared up. It is entirely possible we are in for a bigger decline then most people expect. It is also possible 3/1 was the bull market high. Unfortunately there is no way to know that yet. I believe a lot will depend on what the economy does. I am watching it closely. There will be some important data coming up soon.
Bob
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