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Monday, February 27, 2017

Daily update 2/27

Another day, another record close.  I believe that makes 12 in a row for the Dow.  I heard that was a feat not achieved since 1987.  Obviously that was not a particularly good omen for stocks that year.

This is starting to look like a slow creep up pattern.  Those can reverse sharply, but they can also go on for a while.  Breadth was +56%.  New highs were 168. 

The futures stuck their head above the upper channel line today, but failed to stay there.  SPX made a new high close, but the pattern here looks more like consolidation.  The ADX has tailed way off so we no longer have any particularly high odds of a quick retest of this high should the market start a pullback in the near future.

The green count picked up a bit today.  I mentioned on Friday that getting back to the mid point might spark some buying by the bulls.  That happened today, but the buying was pretty tepid. 

The market is still looking tired to me.  Whether that matters or not remains to be seen.

Here are a couple of interesting articles a friend sent in.
When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance

Along the lines of the second article I heard some of Trump's speech today in which he said they have to do the healthcare changes before they can do the tax changes.  I know this last leg up started with a thrust that appeared to come from his comments about details of a "phenomenal tax package"  to be coming soon.  Given the comments I heard today I don't see how we get details of the tax plan until after we get details of the healthcare plan.  I could be wrong, but I think the healthcare stuff is very complicated and won't be that easy to get changes passed.  I think the odds the market gets disappointed on the progress of changes are rising.


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