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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Daily update 2/14

Euphoria?


No price is too high.  Just keep on buying.  Breadth was just slightly positive.  New highs dropped a good bit to 193.  The rally seems to be thinning out a bit.


The green count is almost overbought now.  Unless the market is down big tomorrow it seems likely to get there. 

The fear of missing out (FOMO) appears to be running deep.  I believe the talk of the great tax plan coming soon is the main driver at the moment.  Clearly the market is in runaway mode.  It can keep going up even though the rally is thinning out.  Is anybody really going to sell before the tax plan is announced?  Depending on how high we are at that time it might be a sell the news event.  I wonder if there isn't a chance the new plan is being over hyped.  Until we get some details it is impossible to say.

Today turned the R2000 short term trend up.  Yesterday SPX turned up, but I forgot to update the table.  I do not like it when the trend turns up into a short term overbought situation like we have now.  Those cases rarely have much follow through.

Bob

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