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Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Daily update 1/4

Upside follow through.  Still no Dow 20000.

SPX formed a little consolidation in Dec.  It broke down from that on the last day, but came right back in.  Usually that means an upside break out is coming.  The problem for bulls is that the VIX is already below 12.  The market has had real trouble moving up when that happens.  So my guess is SPX will make a new high, get the Dow to 20000, then sell off again.  Breadth was a super strong +83%.  Since the indexes were not up all that much it means a lot of stocks were nibbled on.  New highs were 197 while new lows were 6.  Pretty normal numbers there.

The futures confirmed an upside break of the 50 SMA.  A micro uptrend has been reestablished.

The green count crossed above the red line today.  It remains below 50 though.  Depending on how this plays out this could be a negative divergence developing, but it is too soon to tell.

The Dow closed 58 points below 20000.  That is a chip shot.  Maybe tomorrow.  Then they can stop talking about it on TV.  The low VIX is likely to keep the big boys from buying much here.  We will see how high the retail traders are willing to push it.

Today turned the COMPX short term trend to neutral.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.