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Monday, January 30, 2017

Daily update 1/30

I think the market got a little dose of reality that things might not go so smoothly in Washington today.  Where investors got that idea in the first place is beyond me. 

SPX traded below the Feb. uptrend line, but bounced to close above it.  Breadth was -69%.  New highs dropped way down to 44.  New lows picked up a bit to 27.  Dip buyers came to the rescue once again.

The futures dipped down to the 100 SMA, but found support there.  They ended the day above the 50 SMA.

The counts got close together today, but the green is still above the red.  Falling back below 50 this quickly is not a good sign though.

I think the most important thing today is that SPY has an island gap reversal to the downside.  That formation is pretty rare on indexes.  It also has a pretty good track record of follow through.  Sometimes significant. 

The island gap reversal has put the bulls on notice.  They need to kill that formation by at least closing the gap and preferably making new highs.  The last break out didn't really have any oomph behind it.  It seems unlikely to me that bulls will be able to do that.  The next few days should tell us much more.


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