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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, January 27, 2017

Daily update 1/27 Blinding Flash of the Obvious

Ho hum.  Still no follow through on the break out.


Instead of bulls eager to buy Dow 20000 we got yet another day of a morning high and afternoon low.  Breadth was -56%.  New highs dropped way down to 131.  The VIX was within pennies of the lowest it has been in this entire bull market.  The market just continues to look tired.


The green count remains above 50, but its not really in thrust mode.  We don't seem to be getting a good surge of buying on the break out.  Lets look at the weekly version.


The weekly green count has been weakening since mid Dec. when the consolidation started.  Its currently barely above 50 so a turn down in the market would take it below 50 pretty easily.  So far the intermediate indicator is showing a bit of a negative divergence to the summer break out.  However, we don't know if it has peaked yet.  This is the weakest this chart has looked at new highs since last February's low. 

There certainly seems to be a lack of buying enthusiasm at these prices.  The morning high and afternoon low is definitely a negative pattern and it is showing up too often to just dismiss it out of hand.  The market looks tired and in need of a pullback.  I guess we will see if that happens in the not too distant future.

Here is a very interesting open letter to the president from a former FED insider.  Blinding Flash of the Obvious



Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.