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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Daily update 1/25 Historic day as the Dow hits 20000

I guess that headline will be all over the place.  Glad to have that finally over with.


Upside follow through.  Breadth was +62%.  New highs expanded considerably to 322.  SPX fell just short of 2300.  This is a clear break out of the consolidation.  R2000 has not done that yet.


The green count reached 60 today.  This is the highest it has been since mid Dec.  We have liftoff.  The question is how long will the engines keep running.  As I have been saying this braided pattern sometimes breaks with a fake out.  If this is a fake out we should know very soon. 

They paraded an endless stream of people on CNBC today telling us that if we were not fully invested in stocks we were missing out and it is not too late to climb aboard.  I also heard we should not worry about the low VIX.  Not a problem.  They said it has been low for years and we keep going higher.  It is true that the VIX has been low much of the time over the last few years.  However, there has been no time where the VIX was this low and it was a particularly good time to buy.  Maybe this time is different and the market just keeps rising from here. 

A close by SPX back below prior resistance around 2275 would be an early sign of a possible break out failure.  That event would likely lead to a break out below or at least a test of the late Dec. low.  We know that can't happen so there is really no reason to even bring it up.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.