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Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Daily update 1/24

Bulls showed up on cue.

Last night I mentioned the hit of the 100 SMA on the futures chart might be a good place to launch from.  The bulls showed up today and got SPX to a new all time high.  It even closed at a new high.  However, it failed to close above the prior intraday high.  It is also only 9 points above the 12/13 close.  Breadth was +71%.  New highs were 205 (highest since Dec.).  Will it keep on going?

The futures stuck their head above the upper channel line, but failed to stay there.  Not very clear this is going to keep heading higher.

The green count crossed above 50, but just barely.  It would have been nice to see this climb to 60 or better so it looked like a real launch.  This is inconclusive.

Here we are once again at the top of the recent range.  The VIX closed at 11.07.  Obviously this is extremely low.  I don't see any technical evidence to suggest we are likely breaking out to head higher.  That is not to say we won't keep heading up, but I don't see any sign of strength to say this time is different.  I mentioned before that the braided pattern on the green/red count chart usually does not last long.  I think the pattern is going to break now.  However, it is not uncommon to have a fake out move before the real move gets going.  I think it is put up or shut time for bulls.  If this break out attempt fails I believe there will be more selling pressure this time.  One way or another I believe the market is going to get going.


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