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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 1/4/21

? 1/4/21

?+ 1/4/21

Short term

? 12/11/20

? 1/4/21

Up 11/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Daily update 1/12

Dip buyers save the day. 


The sellers came out at the open and sent SPX below its 20 SMA.  However, the selling eventually ended and the market slowly rose back up to minimize the losses for the day.  Breadth was -60%.  New highs dropped way down to 77.  New lows picked up a bit to 16.  It looks like there is still resistance near the top of the trading range.  With the 20 SMA getting ever closer to the upper trend line we are approaching a decision point. 


The futures dipped a ways below the 50 SMA, but found some buyers at the lower channel line.  Yet another amazingly narrow trading range.


The green count slipped considerably.  So much for the bulls attempt to get the market going up again. 


Both the short and intermediate bull pressure lines are showing slight negative divergences.  However, the long term line has made it up past the last peak in the red line.  That is probably a positive thing for bulls, but keep in mind we still have much less strength then we saw off the Feb. low. 

The low VIX is making the upside tough to come by.  Every time we get to the top of the trading range sellers show up.  While the Dow might hit 20,000 while we are in this range I don't think the market goes significantly higher until we get another pullback.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.