Daily update 12/29

SPX climbed above the prior high close at the open, but sellers came out immediately on the gap up.

There have been sellers around on any bit of strength intraday all week.  I thought the sellers would be mostly on vacation.  They must of left some junior traders in the office to get some selling done.  The buyers were really scarce.  Breadth was -58%.  New highs came in at 181.  New lows dropped down to 10.

The bulls bid up futures for no reason that I could find overnight.  They even managed to make a new high by one tick overnight, but the sellers started right in.  By the open they were several points off the high.  The futures confirmed the break of the 20 SMA and ended the day below the 50 SMA and lower channel line.

The green count is still above the red line, but it is looking a little bit precarious now.

The 12/18 gap up is certainly acting like an exhaustion gap.  While the selling pressure has been low there has been very little buying interest.  SPX got extremely extended from the 200 DMA and appears to be needing a pullback.  I have heard a few others mention there could be some pent up selling pressure early next year.  I would not be surprised to see it start on Tuesday.

Hear are my predictions for 2018.

1. SPX will have at least a 3.1% pullback.

2. SPX will contact its 200 DMA.

Way to go out on a limb huh.  I am pretty sure number one will happen.  It would be nice if number two came true as well.  Nobody said I needed to make useful predictions so I figure I might as well make ones that have a pretty good chance of actually happening.
 

I wish everybody a Happy New Year.  No guarantee though!  Warning:  Drinking and tweeting or texting can be hazardous.

Bob

Daily update 12/28

A lot of nothing.  Money managers sitting tight.

Very light volume and little movement.  Breadth was +58%.  New highs were stable at 130.  New lows were also stable at 21.  Tech seems to be holding SPX back from climbing higher.

The futures are still below the 20 SMA, but have not confirmed a break. 

The green count turned back up.  A little buying today.

The selling pressure has been light this week, but the bulls have been lacking enthusiasm.  SPX is only 3 points from a new high close.  The bulls ought to be able to manage that tomorrow.  What happens on the first trading day of Jan. will be interesting.

They have been parading lots of bulls on CNBC this week.  When pressed by hosts for what could go wrong they were struggling to think of something.  I have not heard anybody mention the global economy might slow down.  One of the reasons to be bullish mentioned by many guests was global economic growth.  It is possible ECRI's call for growth to slow next year might not come to pass.  What if it does?  From what I can see there will be very few money managers expecting that.  That seems a bit surprising to me.  The FED will be shrinking its balance sheet all year increasing the run off every quarter.  The ECB is cutting its monthly QE buying in half.  Several countries are raising rates.  It is not out of the question that ECRI ends up being right.  That is more likely to be a second half story though.  Any pullback early in the year should be a buying op if the advance/decline is any indication.

Bob

Daily update 12/27

A general malaise on the part of the buyers today.

So far the much talked about Santa rally has not done so well.  Technology is still a drag after the APPL news yesterday.  Breadth was +53%.  New highs dropped a bit to 130.  New lows were stable at 23.  Many money managers on vacation by the looks of the volume.

The futures closed below the 20 SMA, but they have not confirmed a break yet. 

The green and red lines crossed.  This will sometimes bring out the buyers.  Whether anybody is around to buy is the question.

Art Cashin was looking a little disappointed in the Santa rally today.  I think there is still a little bit of rotation going on even though the volume is low.  Pretty hard to make moves this time of year.  Maybe the retail crowd is too busy buying bitcoins instead of stocks.  Things may pick up over the next two days.  There still might be a new high for SPX to close out the year.

Here is a look at the January SPY option configuration.

Last month SPY pushed up through some call overhead resistance.  January shows an interestingly large number of both puts and calls at the 266 strike (that would be a good place for SPY to be at next expiration).  The 265 strike also has a lot of options as well.  If SPY gets beneath those levels delta hedging may come into play to send SPY down towards the next support at 260.  Overhead resistance could come into play at the 270 strike.

Bob

Daily update 12/26 How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 1

Not a great start to the last trading week.  Speculation AAPL might reduce Q1 IPhone sales estimates put a damper on the buying enthusiasm.

Very light volume narrow range day.  Breadth was +54%.  New highs were 164.  New lows were 21.  Despite a sizable gap in the COMPX on the AAPL news SPX barely budged.  That should bode well for the rest of this week (unless there is more bad news of course).

So far the futures are holding their 20 SMA.  Nothing to worry about at the moment.

The green count collapsed a bit today.  Still above the red line.

Internals remain positive and sellers seem to be few and far apart.  More sideways to up into year end looks probable.  What happens come Jan. may be a different story if there is pent up selling as I expect.  Until then have some fun!

I don't think the title of this article is very good.  However, there are a number of interesting sentiment charts based on actual positioning rather then surveys.  There is considerable optimism out there.  How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 1

Bob

Daily update 12/22 The Hottest, Largest-Ever Cryptocurrency ICO Mindblower

More consolidation.

Less action today as the rotation winds down.  Breadth was dead even.  New highs slipped way down to 128.  New lows dropped a bit to 24.  Next week starts the famed Santa rally.

The futures finally touched the 20 SMA.  Nice setup for Santa rally next week.

I am sure everybody is positioned for next year.  Most money managers will be on vacation.  Since there has been almost no selling pressure all year it seems unlikely it will start now.  That should leave the market free to float up a little bit next week. 

I saw that a Chinese newspaper said the PBOC does not expect to raise rates next year.  That suggests the Chinese government does not expect their economy to have an inflation problem or otherwise over heat in 2018.  Interesting in that many other countries are tightening or thinking about tightening.  With synchronized global growth being all the rage how would China already know they will not need to raise rates?

Here is something to think about this long weekend.  When speculation overcomes reason bull market tops are near.  The Hottest, Largest-Ever Cryptocurrency ICO Mindblower

Get this on this EOS ICO:

Block.one, a software startup registered in the Cayman Islands and lacking a central office, has accomplished an astounding feat: So far, it has extracted $700 million in real money from the global public by selling tokens, called EOS, in an initial coin offering. It is by far the largest ICO ever.

The purchase agreement that buyers in the ICO must sign states this very clearly and explicitly:

The EOS Tokens do not have any rights, uses, purpose, attributes, functionalities and features, express or implied, including, without limitation, any uses, purpose, attributes, functionalities and features on the EOS Platform.

People paid $700 million for literally nothing.  Look at that last paragraph again if you did not get that.  If this is not a mania/bubble what is it?  This is clearly nothing but a scam and yet people bought it.  Snake oil anyone?

For those that celebrate Christmas.

For everybody else.

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays and have a great weekend.

Bob

Daily update 12/21 Technically Speaking: Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

More rotation.  It looks like the broad market upside from tax cuts has been priced in.  Investors are  now buying and selling individual stocks that are expected to be winners and losers from the bill.  I would guess that would be finished by tomorrow.  I can't imagine money managers wanting to hang around next week to do that stuff.

SPX was at a new closing high for a while today.  However, the sellers took over in the afternoon and pushed it back down.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs were up a bit to 187.  New lows were also up a bit to 42.  Despite testing above Monday's exhaustion gap low it failed to stay there and we closed back in the gap.  I guess people are not really in the mood to chase this very extended market at the moment.  They are probably exhausted from buying all those stocks in anticipation of tax cuts getting passed!

The futures climbed above the upper channel line, but failed to stay there.  They still have not contacted the 20 SMA, but that seems more likely now.  The lower channel line is still a possibility.

Some sectors were strong today (financials and oils) and some were weak (semis and utilities).  The market is in a mad dash to get positioned for next year.  The net result has been only minor changes in the major indexes.  The market is extremely overbought, but there is little interest in selling.  In other words boring.  I don't know what else to say.

Interesting look at some historical comparisons.  Technically Speaking: Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

Bob

Daily update 12/20 Rates a rising and may some day bite into TINA

More selling of the news.

The market gapped up on news of the passing of the tax cuts.  The sellers started in right at the open.  However, the intense selling only lasted a little over an hour.  The rest of the day was filled with little ups and downs.  The breadth was dead even.  New highs were stable at 155.  New lows were also stable at 36.  I was a little surprised how fast the market sold off led down by QQQ.  The tech stocks are supposed to get the least benefit from tax cuts as many of those companies have low effective tax rates.  Some may end up paying more taxes.  It does make sense to see some selling there.

The futures did not quite make it down to the 20 SMA.  However, getting this close usually ends up with a hit.  The lower channel line is still a possibility if the dip buyers don't rush in too fast.

The green count slipped a bit more today, but remains above the red line. 

There has been some selling the news on the tax cuts, but so far it has been mild.  It is still looking like Monday might have been an exhaustion gap.  It makes a lot of sense with SPX so extended from the 200 DMA.  Dip buyers might be looking for a bit more downside before rushing in.  It is still over 70 points just to get down to the 50 DMA.  Despite strong seasonality it is not hard to imagine the gains for Dec. might have already been had.

Short term rates have been rising considerably of late.

TINA (there is no alternative) has not been talked about much lately because speculation has returned to the markets big time and they are now rising just because they are rising.  How many times have we heard high stock valuations are not a problem because rates are low.  Now the 2 year yield has risen above the dividend yield for the first time in this bull market.  I expect the FED will continue raising rates.  At some point next year there may be an alternative to high priced stocks.

Bob

Daily update 12/19 Get Ready for Great Bond Bust of 2020

Sell the news?

People started selling right from the open.  After a mid day bounce and the House passing the tax cut bill they sold some more.  Breadth was -63%.  New highs dropped way down to 157.  New lows picked up considerably to 37 (once again elevated).  SPX closed below yesterday's low thus increasing the odds yesterday was an exhaustion gap. 

The futures closed back below the upper channel line after a brief period outside.  A trip to the 20 SMA seems likely.  Possibly a trip to the lower line as well.

The green count slipped right back below 50.  Not exactly a confidence builder for further upside in the near term.

HYG still has not recovered above its 200 SMA.  This has the tendency to snap back pretty quickly if it is going to.  The fact that it has not is shifting the odds to bears on this one.  This should not be a problem yet.  If it picks up speed on the downside then it might eventually bleed over into stocks.

The market got extremely extended and some people decided to take some profits even though the tax bill passed a major hurdle.  That has been going on so long I have a hard time believing it is not pretty much completely priced in by now.  I would not think there would be much selling pressure into year end with the tax changes coming next year.  On the other hand, buyers might be sitting on their hands because of the overbought condition.  It takes buying pressure to hold markets up.  You might have heard the old saying markets can fall of their own weight.  If buyers step back prices could fall some on light volume.  I still expect some pent up selling in Jan.  That should lead to one more good buying op.  I expect the U.S. economy will continue to benefit from natural disaster reconstruction for most of the first half of the year.  What happens in the second half is quite fuzzy.  The FED will probably raise rates again and will be shrinking its balance at a faster rate.  The ECB will cutting back the size of its QE program.  The global economy may be slowing down to top things off.  It seems likely we will see more volatility next year.

This is an interesting article and theory on the long running bond bull market.  Get Ready for Great Bond Bust of 2020

The “global savings glut” is perhaps the most famous theory behind the three-decade slump in bond yields. That glut has stopped growing, and will start shrinking in a few years, in a potential game changer for markets, Gavekal Research Ltd. analysis indicates.

 What propelled the glut was demographic patterns in big economies that saw a surge in the share of people aged 35 to 64, which tend to be years of high savings, Will Denyer, an economist at Hong Kong-based Gavekal, wrote in a report this month. When those demographic patterns reverse, the implication will be potentially “big rate rises” and the risk of a “major fall” in global equity valuations, he wrote.

A simple calculation of the outlook for the “capital provider ratio,” -- measuring the number of 35-to-64 year olds divided by the number of people outside that bracket -- suggests that the world’s saving propensity will drop in a decade’s time, according to Denyer. A more refined measure looks at weights for narrower cohorts of people -- just five years -- which would capture the implication of a greater number of 60-to-64 year olds (who are saving less) than 46-to-50 year olds (who save “a lot”), the study showed.

In the more refined analysis, saving propensity falls rapidly after 2020.

Obviously the CPR is highly correlated to rates, but as the old saying goes correlation does not necessarily mean causation.  On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine that the baby boomer population bubble has had major effects on the economy which will continue through retirement.  I am not convinced rates are going to be headed much higher any time soon.  The great depression greatly lowered private debt levels.  That rise in rates in the 60s and 70s came with much lower debt/GDP ratios in both public and private debt then we have now.  This is true all around the world.   A global increase in rates will cause all kinds of havoc on the global economy which in theory would send rates lower again.  It seems to me we would have to have a big debt cleanse similar to the great depression before we could see a sustained increase in rates.  We might have seen the ultimate low in global rates already though.  We could hang near the bottom for several more years.  Eventually it does seem likely we will see higher rates if this chart means anything at all.

Bob

Daily update 12/18 Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead

More tax cut fever.

Unfortunately most of the excitement happened overnight.  There was very little upside after the open.  Maybe we are getting close to tax cuts being priced in.  Breadth was +68%.  New highs spiked up to 259.  New lows dropped to 19.  SPX is the furthest away from the 200 SMA as it has been since March 1 (that high was not exceeded until 5/8).  The last time before that was early in 2014.  SPY had a doji bar today.  Upside progress from here might be slow.

The futures extended their gains after breaking out of the channel on Friday.  They are getting extremely extended from the 200 SMA here as well. 

The green count finally crossed 50 today.  I am not real sure what to make of this.  While the green count is short of overbought the price is way extended and extremely overbought. 

The market is clearly very overbought.  It is hard to say if that matters when in runaway mode.  Investors were not interested in buying the gap up today, but that does not preclude the futures from gapping up again tomorrow and/or the next day.  When the market is running on emotion technical analysis does not help much.  How far she goes nobody knows.  I would be remiss if I did not mention it is possible today was an exhaustion gap.  A close below today's low would greatly increase the odds of that.  We could see some consolidation now that everybody has piled in.

In Daily update 10/30 ERCI video on profits growth slowdown I wrote

"Interesting video of ECRI chief talking about global economic growth peaking and about to slow down based on their long lead indexes.  I remember ECRI saying in the summer of 2016 their long lead indexes pointed to a global economic upturn and they were dead right.  They might be correct again.  Notice in the video he mentions this might be as good as it is going to get."

Fast forward to today and ECRI is saying spreads are suggesting the slowdown may be starting.  Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead

Of course, there’s no Holy Grail in the world of forecasting, which is why we look at a wide array of leading indexes that each includes many inputs. From that vantage point, the yield curve flattening actually makes a lot of sense. Growth in ECRI’s U.S. Short Leading Index, which doesn’t include the yield curve, has been falling since early this year (top line in chart), pointing to a U.S. growth rate cycle downturn that should become evident in coming months.
Next, please note the separate slowdown signal coming from the difference between the yields on junk bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds -- also known as the quality spread (middle line, shown inverted). It has widened in recent months because the rising default risk for junk bonds during economic slowdowns makes their yields climb faster than those of investment grade bonds, which are less likely to default.

That the quality spread has little to do with the term spread is telling. Please note how closely the (inverted) quality spread has followed the Short Leading Index growth rate, not only this year, but also in past cycles.

Finally, we turn to the term spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields, which has been falling all year (bottom line), flattening the yield curve. Again, this is being dismissed by some analysts who attribute the phenomenon to foreign central banks' suppression of their bond yields, even though this is nothing new. And while declining longer-term inflation expectations and trend growth expectations help explain the long-term downtrend in the term spread, they don't explain its cyclical fluctuations.

Of course, the quality spread doesn’t exhibit a similar long-term downtrend. That’s because it’s unaffected by both foreign monetary policy and the years-long downgrading of long-term growth and inflation expectations.

Nevertheless, the chart shows that the cyclical ups and downs of both the quality spread and the term spread have followed those of the Short Leading Index's growth rate. In other words, our leading indexes, as well as two very different bond market spreads, are telegraphing an economic slowdown that nobody sees coming. It certainly threatens to blindside the Fed, which -- fixated on the Phillips curve -- keeps projecting multiple rate hikes over the next year. 

It is too soon to have any idea how much of a slowdown we might be in for.  It is something to watch as 2018 progresses just in case.

Bob

Daily update 12/15

Tax cut fever grips the market.

I guess there were a few investors out there that decided tax cuts were actually going to happen.  Breadth was +65%.  New highs were only 119.  New lows remain elevated at 30.  We had new closing highs on SPX and COMPX, but not R2000.

The futures are back outside the channel again.  Will they keep on running or come back in?

The green count was up a bit, but remains below 50.  Its been there quite a while despite the market moving up.  That is a bit odd.

A couple of senators that were holding back support of the tax bill approved it today driving the buying.  The full text of the bill was supposed to be released sometime this evening.  It will be interesting to see what kind of comments it receives when people get to read the actual bill.  They say they have the votes to pass it.  Whether it is mostly priced in or not remains to be seen.  Tax cut excitement has overruled the usual mid Dec. pullback.  I have no idea how long that excitement will last or how high it might drive the market.  Today's high volume could be signaling a buying climax.  However, it was quarterly option expiration which always has high volume.  I still expect pent up selling in early Jan., but what happens between now and year end is anybodies guess.  Yearly R3 pivot point resistance is 2744.  That might slow SPX down should we get there.

Have a great weekend.

Bob

Daily update 12/4 Stocks vs Commodities

Gravity does exist.  At least for one day.

Maybe the option related resistance is taking over.  Breadth was -65% so the selling was fairly broad based.  Small caps were down over 1%.  New highs dropped way down to 76.  New lows picked up a bit to 43. 

The futures came back inside the channel and even ended the day below the 20 SMA.  The pattern is a bit odd.  While the futures did not gain much altitude when they were above the upper channel line they stayed out there fore 9 bars.  That is not exactly coming right back into the channel which usually targets the lower line.  My guess is there will be more pullback here.

The green count slipped again, but is still above the red line.  This is no mans land.  We don't have a negative cross to bring out buyers, but it is weakening. 

The options chart suggested the optimal close tomorrow would be around 263 on SPY.  That would take a pretty big down day to do that.  The strike with the highest number of calls was 256.  A close below that should be easily done from here. 

I don't know if this is important or not, but the all company advance decline line did not make a new high with the major indexes this week.  Currently its peak was back on 11/30.  It is not a major negative divergence, but it is a negative divergence nonetheless.  I only mention it because every day I am being told how wonderful everything is.  When nobody is worried is when one needs to watch closely.  HYG still has not recovered back above its 200 DMA.  I also read today the PBOC did a surprise tightening move.  The U.S. economy is clearly benefiting from the repairs of 3 major hurricanes which should last several more months.  If trouble were to come to the U.S. stock market it would have to come from overseas.  China seems like the most likely trouble spot.  SPX has had a couple of spats caused by China in recent years and they seem to come pretty much out of nowhere.  Prior incidences have seen the Chinese government take steps to keep things going.  I am not sure we can count on that now.  I have read enough quotes from Chinese officials recently to make me wonder if they aren't ready to clean up some of the imbalances.  I don't know what the consequences of that would be exactly, but a slowing of their economy seems likely.  That would echo around the world fairly quickly.  What bothers me most is I can't really get a feel for what is going on there and what are the odds things get bad.  Jim Chanos and Kyle Bass have been out talking about how bad China could blow up, but they have been saying that for quite some time.  I can see a black swan out in the water, but I have no idea if/when it might come ashore.  If past history is any indication we could have a sizable blow up with very little warning.  On the other hand, maybe the Chinese government manages things with little or no disruption to the global economy and Chanos and Bass are wrong.  I know the amount of debt added since 2000 in China is staggering.  The amount since 2008 meets the criteria for a full blown financial crisis.  At the same time the central government has $3 trillion in reserves to play with.  I am not smart enough to know how that will play out.  I am only smart enough to know it might be a problem for the global economy some day.

If SPX continues to pullback the first target is the 20 DMA (2625).

Gundlach has been running around with this chart telling people it might be a good time to get some commodity exposure.

Clearly this is an unusual situation.  Theoretically commodities are very cheap relative to equities.  The prior two instances of the ratio getting near this level saw huge rallies in gold and near 50% moves down in SPX (1973-74, and 2000-02).  What is going to happen this time?  There is not enough data to be statistically significant with just two cases.  It could be different this time.  Then again maybe it will be similar.

Bob

Daily update 12/13

FED does as expected. 

SPX closed down a bit so no new high close. The index was up at the highs of the day until 3 PM.  It proceeded to sell off the last hour and closed at the low of the day.  Breadth was +52%.  New highs were up a bit to 138.  New lows were also up a bit at 30. 

The futures managed to stay above the upper channel line.  They have not made much progress though.

The green count picked up a bit, but remains below 50. 

Despite call overhead resistance SPY has managed to tack on 1.24 this week so far.  It will be interesting to see if there is any push back by the option sellers the next two days. 

The republicans say they have a deal on the tax bill.  The senate does not have much room for republican dissenters so we will just have to see what happens when they get their hands on the details.  They expect to vote on it next week.  The republicans have been over promising and under delivering all year.  Maybe they finally deliver something.  If things start looking bad then expect some pullback in the market.

No mid Dec. pullback so far.  Since 12/5 the NYSE ticks have been spending a lot of time in negative territory again.  Odd with SPX hitting new highs.  I saw that pattern in Nov. which eventually led to a slight pullback.  Maybe it will again. 

Bob

Daily update 12/12 DJ30 Tops by month

Looking a bit tired, but a new high close on SPX.

SPX came up just short of 2570 intraday.  Both QQQ and IWM ended in the red.  Breadth was -52%.  New highs were stable again at 113.  New lows were also stable at 25.  Not great for a new high.  SPX is almost 50 points above its 20 SMA so it is really extended.

The futures managed to stay above the upper channel line today.  However, they did not get any separation so it will still be easy for them to drop back inside.

The green count dropped considerably.  SPX is getting a bit weak here.

SPX is very extended and internals look a little tired.  Maybe we still get that mid Dec. pullback yet.  Tomorrow the FED is expected to raise rates .25.  SPX has struggled in the next several weeks after the previous hikes.  Maybe that will be enough to spark a bit of selling.  The famed Santa rally is the 5 days between Christmas and New Years and the first two days of Jan.  There is still a few days to have a pullback.  I am not sure about the first two days of Jan. though.  I am sure there is pent up selling. 

Senator Rand Paul made comments today about not supporting the tax bill.  The republicans don't have much leeway to get it passed.  There is also the much talked about Alabama election which might have a democrat win.  In that case it would put extra pressure on the republicans to get the deal done this year.  Anything that looks like the tax cuts will be a problem seems to upset the market.  I have no clue how that will work out.  Just something to keep an eye on in case the whole thing blows up for some reason.

Here is an interesting look at tops by month.

December odds of starting a bear market are very low. 

Bob

Daily update 12/11 Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears

New closing high!

Asian markets were positive.  That seemed to be enough to spark a little bit of buying in tech stocks which drove SPX to a new high close.  R2000 closed down just a bit.  Breadth was barely positive.  New highs were stable at 110 which was much lower then the late Nov. numbers.  New lows were 24 which is elevated for a new high.

The futures started popping the last 15 minutes of the day and continued higher after hours.  I don't know what that was about.  At any rate they ended the day outside the upper channel line.  However, they are now trading back inside the channel.  When the futures come right back in the channel they tend to visit the lower channel line.  If the futures are still in the channel in the morning then a pullback to that lower line would be likely.  That is about 35 points lower. 

The green count improved a little bit, but remains below 50.  Still not great for a market at new highs.

HYG still has not gotten back above its 200 SMA.  There is the potential for a higher low and rally from here.  The jury is still out on that though.

I apologize for forgetting the option chart on Friday.

It would appear there is a lot of call overhead starting at 263.  There is a huge amount of calls here at 265.  It seems unlikely SPY would be above that on Friday.  Put support comes in at 262 and 260.  However, those numbers are not all that much higher then the call numbers at those strikes.  There are almost as many calls as puts at 260.  The 263 level is where calls really start to outnumber puts.  It would not be surprising to see SPY close around there on Friday.  That would coincide nicely with the pattern mentioned in the futures above if they come back inside the channel.

Market internals are not particularly strong.  The option configuration suggests there could be considerable resistance around here through Friday.  The FED is expected to raise rates on Wed.  That sounds like a recipe for some consolidation this week. 

Interesting article on commercial and industrial loan growth.  Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears   I don't think a recession is imminent.  However, China could throw a monkey wrench into the situation before 2018 is over depending on what happens over there.

Bob