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Monday, December 5, 2016

Daily update 12/5

I think this was the "world did not end with the Italian referendum vote" relief rally.

SPX came within one point at 10 AM of hitting 2210 and that is where it stopped.  From there it proceeded to work lower until 2:40 PM before rallying a bit into the close.  Breadth was a solid +69%.  New highs were 230 while new lows dropped down to 39.  SPX stopped 5 points from its intraday high.  I guess this constitutes a test of that high should it turn down from here. 

The futures shot up in the middle of the night here.  They ended the day back above the 20 SMA, but did not confirm a break yet. 

The red count slipped just a bit today, but remains well above the green count.  The green count did not improve today.  If the bulls were really ambitious it seems like that should have picked up some today. 

I think the biggest thing that happened today was the VIX imploding 14% to close at 12.14.  For over 18 months the market has stalled when the VIX gets down around 12.  Did the Trump election fix that problem along with everything else that ails the world?  I suspect it didn't.  Will the bulls conquer 2210 before the bears send SPX back below 2200?

I happened to catch David Rosenberg on CNBC today.  There was a couple of hosts doing the interview.  When he started talking about tapering upside expectations one of the hosts asked him about animal spirits.  He chuckled and said somebody asked him how to model animal spirits.  Then he mentioned that was like something that would happen at a top.  He also used the word euphoria in conversation.  The internals of this market do not look anything like animal spirits taking over.  If the market continues higher it will be a slow grind, not an explosive break out.  Between the internals and sentiment this still looks like a textbook blow off top to me.  I guess we will see what happens.


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