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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 1/4/21

? 1/4/21

?+ 1/4/21

Short term

? 12/11/20

? 1/4/21

Up 11/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 23, 2016

Daily update 12/23

Another snooze fest.


The buyers showed up enough to get a positive day, but just barely.  My "why buy now" theory worked for one day anyway.  Breadth was +55%.  New highs slipped to 74.  New lows were stable at 16.  Not much to say.  Nothing new in the futures either.


The green count slipped back down today as I suspected it might.  This is just noise from the very narrow multi day range.

They talk to a trader named Peter Costas sometimes on CNBC.  Last year near the top in SPX he said he got out of stocks.  I think I commented on the blog about that because nobody gets on TV and says they are out of stocks.  After the mini crash in Aug. they asked him if he had gotten back in.  He said no.  Then comes Feb.  They asked him what he was doing and he was back into stocks.  Pretty good timing I would say.  In the middle of Dec. they asked him what he was doing and he said he was out of stocks again.  His point was that he did not care about missing 3% on the upside.  He thinks there will be an opportunity next year to get back in.  I saw him again today and he reiterated his stance.  He elaborated a little more though.  His perspective is that while earnings may be slightly positive this quarter they won't live up to the expectations people are setting with the run up in prices.  In the last two years this guy has been right on.  I tried to google to find out more about him and the only thing I came up with was this quote from stocktwits:

"Peter Costas is the only one cnbc thats been correct from start to finish.:  from  theBack9 Hedge Analyst

I don't really know who this guy is.  Unlike many on Wall Street he must like to keep a low profile.  He has demonstrated impeccable timing before.  I think he is one worth listening to.  Time will tell if he is right in this instance. 

This is a great read whether one celebrates Christmas or not.  Just A Note Of Thanks & The Joy Of Christmas

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.