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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 18, 2016

Election

Reading and listening to post election comments indicates to me the media and most democrats have absolutely no idea what happened on election day.  I suspect many top republican party leaders may also be a bit clueless.  This election was not about racism, hatred, left vs right, liberal vs conservative, or anything the media tried to make it out to be.  This election was about this chart.

The Wealth Inequality Problem in One Chart

To borrow a phrase from Bill Clinton's campaign, "the economy, stupid".  I have said a number of times in this blog that people's perception of the U.S. economy is highly impacted by where they live.  The major coastal cities are doing okay while middle America sucks royally.  It just so happens the voting population is about evenly split in the two areas.  For an awful lot of folks in this country the economy really, really is poor.  That is why they voted for Trump.  Hillary campaigned on everything is fine she will continue it.  She even called Trump supporters deplorable.  Well, sorry to say, but everything is not fine and that is why she lost.

Trump campaigned from the start about the economy.  About putting America first.  About creating better jobs.  The heartland decided that in spite of all his faults he would be the better president for them.  Hillary never really tried to get their vote.  She spoke mostly to her base in the big cities.  More then anything else Trump is a nationalist.  Europeans have uprisings in many countries that they call populism.  Many people around the world are getting left behind in the global economy that serves mostly those at the top.  The brexit vote and the Trump election are just signs the movement is gaining strength.  This seems likely to continue to me.  There could be global economic ramifications.

Most of the generation before me never went to college.  Yet most high school only educated men got jobs, married, bought houses and raised families.  Many of my high school classmates attended college, but many did not.  Those that did not were still able to buy houses and raise families.  Look around at the world today.  Even quite a few college educated kids are living at home with their parents unable to find good jobs.  In a truly good economy Uber would not even exist.  Do you really think that people like picking up complete strangers and driving them around in their personal cars?  I don't.  They do it because of necessity.  There are not enough good paying jobs.

Our economic problems are not easily solved.  We have too much debt, an aging population and many jobs being automated away.  There will be no magic wand waved that makes things suddenly better.  I find it curious how so much optimism suddenly appeared after the election simply because the market did not crash.  People's expectations are way too high.  The new president will not be able to even come close to the growth promises that were made in the campaign.  He will most likely have to deal with a global recession that could be worse then 2008.  Be prepared for what unfolds and don't expect miracles.

I don't know exactly how all this will work out.  What I do know is that if the globalists do not figure out a way to get more wealth distributed down to the working class the nationalist/populist movements will gain strength.  It may even be too late already.  I think it is important to note this is very much a replay of the 20s.  That was the last time the wealth distribution was so skewed.  That period was followed by the great depression.  Will it be different this time?

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.