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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 4, 2016

Daily update 11/4

Bounce coming?


Down again.  That makes 9 days in a row which has not happened since Dec. 1980.  Today's low was just fractionally above the 200 SMA.  The bulls showed up for most of the day though.  It was just late day selling that took SPX back into the red.  Breadth was slightly positive and some indexes closed up.  New highs were 22.  New lows slipped down to 63.  Volume declined again.  The bears are clearly losing momentum. 


The futures show some deceleration in the move down. They could turn up here reasonably easy for a bounce.


The red count slipped again.  Two days in a row now while SPX closed lower.  The count never reached oversold levels, but clearly shows a loss of downside momentum.

SPX reached the 200 DMA without a lot of down side momentum.  Volume has declined three days in a row.  Market internals are starting to turn around.  The VIX closed above all the futures contract prices (that actually happened yesterday) which often means a short term bottom is nearby.  That seems like a recipe for a bounce.  However, this does not look like a selling climax type bottom setup.  Falling volume means sellers were pulling back, not panicking out.  A relief rally though seems appropriate.  After all, I think just about everybody will be relieved to get this election over with.  I suspect the big players have all hedged themselves in case of a Trump win and a negative market reaction.  It seems possible to me the market could bounce no matter which candidate wins.  With the market internals this weak it is hard to imagine this being a durable low.  It would be much better to see a high volume selling climax.  Lets see if the bulls show up on Monday to get a bounce going.  A test of the 2120-25 break down area would be a pretty normal thing to do.

Election:
I think it is safe to say this election has made it clear this country has some problems we need to work on.  How in the world did two candidates so disliked by so many people actually get the nominations?  If you think about it that is absolutely amazing.  Our democracy has become non functional over the last two decades.  The media is full of lies and deception and in no way helps keep Americans informed on the state of the union.  Both of the last two presidents have blatantly lied while the media looked the other way.  I believe this is largely because big corporations have essentially taken control of the government.  I don't remember the exact stats, but seven media companies control something like 90% of all media outlets.  As long as the president does what the big corporations want the media will play right along and give them lots of free passes.  The current president has been diligently working on the TPP which is top secret and supposedly benefits corporations greatly.  If it was good for the American people why so much secrecy?  This president has also gotten lots of free passes.  You get the picture.  While the economy is working great for many companies it is not working very well for many Americans which explains Trumps' popularity.  I don't know who will win this election, but I can see a time in the future when the American people find an acceptable anti establishment candidate and take the country back from the corporations.  The polls show most Americans no longer trust the media.  That may actually be the most important thing that happened during this election.  Anybody remember Abe Lincoln's famous words

"It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."
 
The government is now of the corporation, by the corporation and for the corporation.  We the people of the United States of America must band together and take our country back before it is too late.  There is much work to be done.
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html
Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin101395.html

Have a great weekend. 

Bob

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Citizens United - held up by the Supreme Court. Promoted by Republicans

Bernie Sanders recently stated, "there is no moral excuse for the top one-tenth of 1 percent owning as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent, for one family (the Waltons) having more wealth than the bottom 42 percent of our population, for the number of billionaires increasing by ten-fold since 2000 while we continue to have the highest rate of childhood poverty of almost any industrialized country on earth."

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