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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, November 28, 2016

Daily update 11/28

My index watch list has this funny look to it with red prices.  I thought only green days were allowed.


SPX closed below a prior day's low for the first time since before the election.  Breadth was -65%.  New highs slipped way down to 136.  New lows were stable at 16.  SPX came to rest on the uptrend line from the Feb. low.   A pretty odd looking daily chart.


The futures touched the 20 SMA for the first time since the election.  They closed below the minor uptrend line (yellow line) from last week's low volatility move up.   This was an odd move.  The price pattern looks like one of those slow creep up patterns that can reverse sharply.  However, the breadth was stronger then normally seen in that pattern..  If this is a blow off top it would be normal to have the stronger breadth I guess.


The green line moved down significantly. The peak achieved on this rally is much lower then the one at the left edge of the screen from the summer break out.  The market might not hold up as well as it did back then.

A little profit taking came in today.  I heard Bob Pisani and a few others notice the rapid rise in bullish sentiment.  That is especially true for retail investors.  With somewhat weak internals this could be a contrarian sign.  So far SPX has just made a marginal new high.  It really needs to keep going to even call it a break out.  The small caps and transports that had been showing relative strength were showing relative weakness today.  They had a big run so that was not really unusual.  The real question is whether this latest move up is truly sustainable or not.  I can't see where the fundamentals are improving.  The economy is still weak and the FED is about to raise rates anyway.  The dollar is holding its break out really well so far.  There does not appear to be an OPEC oil deal to be had at the Nov. 30 meeting.  Global interest rates have had the biggest move up in several years.  What is it exactly that is good for earnings here?  I can't seem to find it.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.