If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, November 14, 2016

Daily update 11/14

Very curious.


High volume continues without upward price movement.  Rotation still going on.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs came in at 330 while new lows came in at 299.  Both numbers that high is just plain crazy.  SPX is running in place at the moment.


The futures made another move above the trendline in the night, but once again failed to stay there.  The 20 SMA is still below a ways, but is coming up pretty fast.  That could slap the market higher or provide a downside pivot.


The green count increased a bit today, but remains below overbought. 

I mentioned the other day this could be a blow off top.  While SPX and COMPX are not looking like that here are a few other charts to ponder.  First up is SPX's blow off top from 2000.


That spike up was the ultimate top in 2000.  Here is what is going on now.




The small caps, financials, and transports have all been lagging for a long time.  All off a sudden they are racing higher.   IWM made a new all time high.  XLF a new bull market high.  IYT still has a ways to go.  Don't you find these charts a bit odd?  If they are not a blow off top I don't what they could be.  People are clearly piling in with reckless abandon.  Look at all that volume.  Maybe I am just crazy.  Maybe Donald Trump getting elected means the world is saved.  The world being saved seems like the less likely scenario to me.

DXY has continued on its merry way higher.


Triple top or base to go higher.  We will find out in the months ahead.  DXY is testing that prior double top.  This is the moment of truth for the dollar, but it may take a while before we know the result.

We are clearly at a critical juncture for the markets.  This is all so strange.  Bunches of new highs and new lows.  Some indexes flying up, others doing nothing.  Bizarre.  I read the global bond market has lost over $1 trillion since the election.  Ouch.  To me it looks like investors have gone nuts.  That has been known to happen at the ends of major trends before.  We will see what happens.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.