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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Daily update 10/13 This is Why US Gov. Deficit Numbers are a BIG Lie

Not as bad as it could have been.


SPX tested down below the key 2120 level, but bounced back above it.  Thus validating the importance.  The breadth was -65%.  New highs came in at 30 while new lows increased to 36.  That is the most new lows since the brexit vote sell off.  Some people might view that chart as a possible double bottom.


The futures got a bit extended on the downside short term and put together a nice rally.  The -DI line reached the 35 level again and that often causes a bounce.  SPX never made new highs since the last -DI 35 reading.  The door to a larger decline was already open.  That is just a reminder.  It remains to be seen if the bears step through that door.


The red count turned up a bit today, but remains below oversold levels.

We have not had a high TRIN reading.  The red count has not reached oversold levels.  The VIX has a 16 handle.  This does not appear to be a technical condition that will bring in a rush of buyers to push SPX to new highs.  If this is to be a double I think the impetus will have to come from earnings.  Of course earnings could end up being the reason the market rolls over and down through 2120.  I don't have any idea what happens tomorrow.  I am sure the news flow will determine that.  There is room to bounce as it is 20 points up to SPX's 20 DMA.

Today's early selling came from disappointing economic data out of China.  You might recall SPX has tanked on China worries before.  The worries seem to come and go, but the problems remain.  Sometimes I wonder if a large part of the buying we saw last spring was mostly foreign money coming to the U.S. to escape the world's problems.  After all there are a lot of money managers around the world that must be invested at all times.  The problem of course is that one consequence of globalization is that the entire world tanks together.  We have a truly global economy now days.  There will be no island of refuge if the proverbial *(&^ hits the fan.

This is a good article, but only read it if you can handle or want to know the truth. This is Why US Gov. Deficit Numbers are a BIG Lie

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.